An important thing to consider here is that the percentage of Americans who consider themselves to be "born again" or "evangelical" Christians increased substantially in 1990s, from about a third of respondents to close to half by 1999, and it's been holding steady since then.
Nevertheless, (1) the proportion of the population that considers itself "religious right" during the same period has always been lower, never more than 20%; and (2) the proportion goes down as educational level goes up.
So although the country seems to have become more religious in the last 10-20 years, that increase has not been due to any demographic increases in the religious right.
This indicates to me that any pandering that the Republican party does to this small and marginal religious group is going to hurt the party in the long run, and maybe in the short run too, as we approach the elections next year.
Here's a 1992 poll:
Quote:
QUESTION:
QD14 Would you describe yourself as a 'born-again' or evangelical Christian, or not?
RESULTS:
Yes - 36%
No - 60
Don't know/Refused - 5
DEMOGRAPHICS:
YES NO DONT KNOW/REFUSED
718 Male 32 63 5
723 Female 39 56 5
1K+ White 35 61 4
269 Black 53 39 9
67 Hispanic 19 79 2
22 Asian 21 74 5
139 < HS grad 44 49 7
519 HS Graduate 39 57 4
357 Some college 34 61 5
417 College Grad 22 76 2
286 East 21 72 7
364 Midwest 35 59 6
542 South 49 46 5
249 West 29 69 2
373 Republican 40 57 3
482 Democrat 37 61 2
526 Independent 32 62 6
271 < $ 15,000 40 57 4
151 $ 15,000-19,999 43 53 4
234 $ 20,000-29,999 39 55 6
359 $ 30,000-49,999 32 67 1
208 $ 50,000-74,999 30 67 3
146 $ 75,000 & Over 29 68 3
254 Liberal 28 71 1
641 Moderate 33 63 5
487 Conservative 44 53 3
302 18-29 33 60 7
357 30-39 32 66 2
302 40-49 34 63 3
188 50-59 42 54 4
160 60-69 39 57 4
121 70 and Over 40 53 7
849 Protestant 50 47 4
327 Catholic 10 85 4
26 Jewish 1 96 3
89 None 12 81 7
255 Union Household 39 58 2
1K+ Non-Union 35 60 4
ORGANIZATION CONDUCTING SURVEY: GALLUP ORGANIZATION
POPULATION: National adult
NUMBER OF PARTICIPANTS: 1,441
INTERVIEW METHOD: Telephone
SURVEY SPONSOR: Cable News Network, U.S.A. Today
BEGINNING DATE: September 11, 1992
ENDING DATE: September 15, 1992
SOURCE DOCUMENT: GALLUP, C.N.N., U.S.A. TODAY
DATE OF RELEASE OF SOURCE DOCUMENT: September 1992
QUESTION ID: USGALLUP.322018, QD14
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Here's the same question, asked in 1999:
Quote:
QUESTION:
QD08 Would you describe yourself as a 'born again' or evangelical Christian, or not?
RESULTS:
Yes, would - 46%
No, would not - 52
Don't know/refused - 2
ORGANIZATION CONDUCTING SURVEY: PRINCETON SURVEY RESEARCH ASSOCIATES
POPULATION: National adult
NUMBER OF PARTICIPANTS: 1,205
INTERVIEW METHOD: Telephone
SURVEY SPONSOR: Pew Research Center
BEGINNING DATE: September 1, 1999
ENDING DATE: September 12, 1999
SOURCE DOCUMENT: NEW INTEREST INDEX POLL
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And the same question asked last month:
Quote:
QUESTION:
Do you consider yourself an evangelical or born-again Christian?
RESULTS:
Yes - 43%
No - 52
Don't know - 3
Refused - 1
ORGANIZATION CONDUCTING SURVEY: Schulman, Ronca, & Bucuvalas
POPULATION: National adult
NUMBER OF PARTICIPANTS: 1,010
INTERVIEW METHOD: Telephone
SURVEY SPONSOR: Time
BEGINNING DATE: March 22, 2005
ENDING DATE: March 24, 2005
SOURCE DOCUMENT: Time/SRBI Poll
DATE OF RELEASE OF SOURCE DOCUMENT: March 25, 2005
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Here's a 2004 poll on the "Religious Right":
Quote:
QUESTION:
Do you think of yourself as part of the conservative Christian political movement, also known as the Religious Right?
RESULTS:
Yes - 13%
No - 78
Not sure - 9
ORGANIZATION CONDUCTING SURVEY: Hart and McInturff Research Companies
POPULATION: National adult
NUMBER OF PARTICIPANTS: 1,003
INTERVIEW METHOD: Telephone
SURVEY SPONSOR: NBC News, Wall Street Journal
BEGINNING DATE: December 9, 2004
ENDING DATE: December 13, 2004
SOURCE DOCUMENT: NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll
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And a similar question with similar responses in 1998. Note that this is a huge poll with 11,000 respondents, and it has the complete demographic breakdown. About 14% of Democrats consider themselves "religious right", but the highest demographic groups were uneducated, poor, and conservative.
Quote:
QUESTION:
QEE1 Do you consider yourself part of the conservative Christian political movement, also known as the religious right?
RESULTS:
Yes - 18%
No - 82
DEMOGRAPHICS:
YES NO
1K+ Male 18 82
1K+ Female 19 81
1K+ White 18 82
1K+ Black 21 79
586 Hispanic 24 76
125 Asian 14 86
250 < HS grad 29 71
1K+ HS graduate 24 76
1K+ Some college 18 82
1K+ College grad 15 85
992 Post grad 12 88
1K+ East 12 88
1K+ Midwest 18 82
1K+ South 27 74
1K+ West 15 85
1K+ Republican 25 75
1K+ Democrat 14 86
1K+ Independent 14 86
739 < $ 15,000 30 70
1K+ $ 15,000-29,999 24 76
1K+ $ 30,000-49,999 20 80
1K+ $ 50,000-74,999 17 83
1K+ $ 75,000 & over 11 89
1K+ Liberal 14 86
1K+ Moderate 12 88
1K+ Conservative 31 69
1K+ 18-29 years old 20 80
1K+ 30-39 21 79
1K+ 40-49 18 82
1K+ 50-59 17 83
869 60-64 16 84
1K+ 65 & over 16 84
1K+ Protestant 22 78
1K+ Catholic 12 88
170 Jewish 3 97
395 None 7 93
1K+ Union household 18 82
1K+ Non-union hh 18 82
ORGANIZATION CONDUCTING SURVEY: VOTER NEWS SERVICE
POPULATION: National adult exiting voters
NUMBER OF PARTICIPANTS: 11,387
INTERVIEW METHOD: Self-administrated
SURVEY SPONSOR: ABC News, Associated Press, CBS News, C.N.N., Fox News, NBC News
SURVEY NOTES: There were two versions of the questionnaire which included some questions in common.
BEGINNING DATE: November 3, 1998
ENDING DATE: November 3, 1998
SOURCE DOCUMENT: 1998 ELECTION DAY EXIT POLL
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