You're making sense and I understand what you are saying. I wasn't saying DIPS is bad in any way, just that we need to understand it's limitations and what types of pitchers for which it won't predict reliable results.
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Originally Posted by blakngold4
MLB rules seem to indicate otherwise. the guy who hit the HR would've conceivably hit it regardless of situation, so his run is earned. The other two are unearned, because but for the fielder's error, both would've been erased.
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You are partially right there. Examples from the
mlb rule book (scroll down to the section on earned runs):
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(1) With two out, P1 walks A. B reaches base on an error. P2 relieves P1. C hits home run, scoring three runs. Charge two unearned runs to P1, one earned run to P2.
(2) With two out, P1 walks A and B and is relieved by P2. C reaches base on an error. D hits home run, scoring four runs. Charge two unearned runs to P1, two unearned runs to P2.
(3) With none out, P1 walks A. B reaches base on an error. P2 relieves P1. C hits home run, scoring three runs. D and E strike out. F reaches base on an error. G hits home run, scoring two runs. Charge two runs, one earned, to P1. Charge three runs, one earned, to P2.
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This is exactly why the concept of ER's is screwed up.