You know, kutulu, I have a good friend who shares the same exact baseball philosophy as me and only disagreed with my predictions regarding the Diamondbacks.
However, I just don't believe that things are gonna go their way.
1) Russ Ortiz sucks. Well, that's unfair. He has never missed a start in his career, throughout which he has always been an almost exactly league average pitcher. In the past, he played in great pitcher's parks, like Pac Bell and Turner Field. Now, he's moving to the hitter's haven in the BOB. In the past, he was young. Now he's entering his decline phase as a 31-year old. The Braves only used him in the postseason after John Thompson got injured. His run support has always been great - something that isn't likely to continue in Arizona. Lastly, his HR rate shot up the last half of last season, and I doubt it'll go down in the BOB, and playing away from all those AL East pitcher's parks.
2) Glaus is not a good defensive thirdbaseman. Also, it is a foolish to assume he will be healthy. Glaus hasn't been healthy in a long time, and there is no reason to wishcast him into the role of healthy bopper. He might stay healthy, but I think it is far more likely that he won't. Which doesn't make him worth that kind of money. The man's only played about 150 games in the last two years. He is only really worth that kind of money if he performs at the upper limits of his possible performance, and I doubt he'll reach that for many reasons.
3) Shawn Green just isn't that good any more. The last two years, he hit .280/.355/.460 and .266/.352/.459. He also wasn't healthy. The last time he had a year worth the money he makes was 2002 - we're now entering the 2005 season and Green's older and hitting and playing about as much as Rondell White, for way more money.
4) The DBacks don't have Randy Johnson anymore. Instead they'll have Javier Vazquez, who at his best won't even come close to approximating Johnson.
5) The Dodgers and Giants both have decent teams - see my earlier post. The DBacks won 51 games last year - do these moves really suggest that they'll be able to compete this year? Do these long term contracts look like they'll be a boon over the next few years? And if the DBacks aren't good, will they make enough money to be able to at least try and accumulate less debt?
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