jorgelito

Sob,

Look up Shanghai Communiques - I believe it outlines the US commitment to "One-China" Policy, reunification through diplomacy but not by force. I think the wording is a bit vague though. I think (not sure) but to Bush's credit, he reaffirmed recently the US commitment to Taiwan. Traditionally, Congress is the more avid supporter. Unfortunately, many Taiwanese think that the US will automatically come to their aid in the event of a problem. Subsequently, they behave as such - agitating Beijing.

Taiwan did have a nuclear programme but our CIA caught them and they promised to halt (which I believe they did). Taiwan most likely complied as they do not want to piss off their main (only) benefactor. Taiwan currently has 3 or 3 nuclear power plants.

Up to now, US policy has been to arm Taiwan "defensively" to "balance" Chinese "offensive" capability. But recently, the balance had tipped in favor of the Chinese as the US (and other nations) becomes increasingly reluctant to sell arms (reasonably good ones) to Taiwan.

Last purchases include Orion P-3 Sub hunters?, I think some Patriot batteries were in discussion but may have fell through. Taiwan was shopping for some decent subs but were only able to get some crappy Danish Diesel subs at 4 times their worth or maybe Dutch subs (crap). Also, we sold them either missile frigates or destoyers (Perry class and Knox class something, can't recall), like 3 of them or something.

Taiwan is especially vulnerable to a missile barrage or threat of one. It would cripple their economy.

I think you can get more info through Jane's Defense.

I also thought China would be our greatest "threat"/competitor (a decade ago too!) but I think they do not have imperialist ambition. Rather, their primary interest is in Taiwan, and gaining respect or "face" worldwide. Second, maybe getting the Japanese to atone for their atrocities and getting closure on that whole episode. I do think there is great potential for internal collapse.

China's main interest is in acquiring an aircraft carrier so that they can become a bona fide "blue water navy". Secondly, they want to modernize in way of communications on the field, satellites, intl gathering, operations etc. Not necessarily military hardware but communications infrastructure.

On a side not, I cannot for the life of me understand why the EU would want to end the arms embargo? DO they hate Taiwan (rhetorical)? Manx, this would go to your arms discussion (we should open another thread just for arms). However, I heard an interesting take on China's military spending (still very small). China simply cannot afford to buy the weapons available and would be available from Europe.

In Taiwan, they held a referndum last year to increase defense spending but the people voted no! Why? Because they think the US will come to their aid (I'm gonna go out on a limb and speculate that Canada and others have similar feelings. EX: The EU polls show that Europeans lean a tiny bit towards superpower ambition, but when asked if they're willing to pay for it, overwhelming 68% (?) said no, not willing to pay for it. Similarly, maybe Canada (just my opinion and speculation) doesn't spend a lot on defense cause 1. Few enemies, and 2. We're buddies and would most likely come to their aid.