|
I don't think we should count diplomacy out yet.
Someone in the Administration has had some positive influence on Bush and Rice, because they suddenly stopped disparaging the European negotiation effort. Plus they actually made some noises about the U.S. being involved in offering Iran some concessions (something about spare plane parts and the WTO).
The disadvantage of negotiation is that it seems to lend support to the clerics, who don't deserve any support whatsoever and are politically vulnerable right now. But the advantage is that it puts the ball in the clerics' court. So if they don't run with it, the U.S. is no longer an obstacle in sending them to the Security Council for sanctions.
The main wild card right now is: will the Europeans follow through and send it to the Security Council? Or will they let the negotiations drag on forever?
The possibility of peaceful disarmament sure seems dismal right now. But you never know how much of the talk is real and how much is bluffing. Maybe Iran really is waiting for a sweeter package of incentives from the U.S.? The only way to find out is to keep talking.
|