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If it were up to me (thank God it isn't), I would restrict all flights in and out of Iran and watch all the boarders. As long as mutually assured destruction ap[ples to the Iranian governmental officials, they should refrain from attacking. If they try to leave, simple don't allow it. I realize how contradictory this idea runs to my libertarian beliefs, but bear with me.
I think that Ayatollah Ali Hoseini-Khamenei is scared to death right now. When Iraq and Iran went head to head back in 1980, they were evenly matched with Iraq. How long did it take for America to remove the Iraqi government? A few weeks? There is a clear danger to the government of Iran. IUn order to try and deterr America and our allies, it seems logical to try and gain better footing in the area of military power. They can't get a state of the art military or tons of troops, so they try the powerful weapons route. What's the most powerful weapon, striking fear even to America? The nuclear bomb. Don't forget that the last report from the IAEA said that although Iran had not been fully cooperative, there was no concrete proof that Iran was seeking to develope nuclear arms. Aside from respectable organizations like the IAEA, we have to rely on the same intelligence netowrks that told us that Iraq had WMD programs and ties to 9/11. They have lost what little trust they once had. So, as far as I can tell, there is no proof of Iranian nuclear programs. Because of this lack of proof, a war is completly and 100% out of the question, at least a preemptive war. America would be running the risk of not only alienating the rest of the world further, but possibly seeing our former allies take an opposing stand. I don't want to see a war, espically between super powers.
Our best bet is still the EU, who's negotiator made great progress for a time with Iran. Don't forget that on November 14, 2004, Iran's chief nuclear negotiator said that his country agreed to suspend the uranium enrichment program after pressure from the European Union on behalf of the United Kingdom, France and Germany.
Aisde from deterrance, the real threat is that Iran suppoirts terrorist groups. I believe that in 1995, the reason America suspended trade with Iran was both the support of terrorist groups and the development of nuclear weapons. I don't want to see "terrorist" and "nuclear wepons" in the same sentence, unless that sentence says that it doesn't want to see them in the same sentence. Heh. That's the wild card.
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