I'll keep mine confined to what I know
2005 Baltimore Orioles
2004 record: 78-84, Third Place
2005 prediction: 86-76, Third Place
2004 Review:
2004 was an up-and-down year for the Orioles. They had some very good months, and some very bad months. In May three members of the starting rotation were injured, forcing Rodrigo Lopez to come out of the pen, as well as Daniel Cabrera to come up from AA. Both pitched very well. In June the team went on a bad losing skid led by eleven-straight losses by Sidney Ponson. The month ended with two turning point events at the same time: the firing of pitching coach Mark Wiley, and picking up David Newhan as a minor-league FA. Wiley's replacement was Ray Miller, a legend within the Orioles organization, who led the pitching staff to the fouth-best ERA in the league in the second half. Newhan was a shot in the arm to the lineup, and hit above .400 well into August. In the latter part of the season, call-ups Bruce Chen and Dave Borkowski each contributed as the Orioles finished with their best record since 1999, and out of fourth place for the first time since 1997.
2005 Overview:
The Orioles are an intriguing team. They have a potentially great lineup, and a pitching staff with great potential. The Sosa trade was huge for three reasons:
1) It solved one of the burning questions for the past two seasons: Brian Roberts or Jerry Hairston at second.
2) It increased the potential offensive output from the outfield.
3) It finally allowed Jay Gibbons to move to first base, his natural position, and Palmeiro to DH.
This team could win 90 games, or lose 90 games, depending on the pitching staff.
Offense:
Lineup -
2B Brian Roberts
3B Melvin Mora
SS Miguel Tejada
RF Sammy Sosa
DH Rafael Palmeiro
C Javy Lopez
1B Jay Gibbons
CF Luis Matos
LF Larry Bigbie
Bench -
C Geranimo Gil
IF/OF BJ Surhoff
IF/OF David Newhan
IF Chris Gomez
Overall this lineup can compare favorably with the Big Two in the AL East. Injuries to Jay Gibbons and Luis Matos limited their production last year, but both will be healthy this year. Palmeiro had a down year, but hit nine home runs in September and October after being moved to DH and given a few games rest.
Tejada and Mora are the backbone of the lineup. Mora hit .340 last year, and Tejada led MLB in RBI with 150. Sosa adds the potential for more home runs and another right-handed bat to face the tough lefthanders that killed the Orioles last year. Javy Lopez hit .316 as well. Larry Bigbie is continuing to develop into a solid ML player, hitting .280 with 15 home runs.
Pitching:
Starters -
Rodrigo Lopez
Sidney Ponson
Erik Bedard
Daniel Cabrera
Matt Riley
Bullpen -
LR Bruce Chen
LR Rick Bauer
MR Steve Reed
MR John Parrish
SET Steve Kline
SET B.J. Ryan
C Jorge Julio
The starting rotation is where the Orioles will live and die. The staff ERA was 4.70 last season, seventh in the league, but was a full run lower in the second half then the first half after changing pitching coaches, bringing back an organizational legend in Ray Miller.
Sidney Ponson was one of the biggest benificiaries of Miller's return, going 8-3 post-All-Star Break after a 3-12 first half. He hopes to continue that success after a tumaltuous offseason.
Rodrigo Lopez will likely be the "ace" of the staff after going 14-9, after being in the bullpen until May saw injuries to other pitchers. Eric Bedard was one of the top pitching prospects in baseball before Tommy John surgury, and hadn't pitched an inning above A ball before last season. He finished 6-10 with a 4.59 ERA, and is expected to contribute more this season.
Daniel Cabrera was the surprise of last season, going from AA afterthought to Rookie-of-the-year candidate within a month of coming up in May. He is raw, but is developing as he goes and should contribute. Matt Riley is the living embodiment of Nuke LaLoosh. He is projected in the rotation because he is out of options, but he still has more potential then anyone on the staff. Whether he puts it together will remain to be seen.
The bullpen is the strength of the team this year. Jorge Julio and BJ Ryan will fight it out to be the closer. Ryan is already considered one of the toughest lefties in baseball. The Orioles also signed Steve Kline as a setup man, and Steve Reed as a much-needed righty in middle relief.
The two long-relief spots will probably go to two starters who don't make the rotation. In addition to Bedard, Cabrera, and Riley, the Orioles have a bunch of other pitchers. Bruce Chen and Dave Borkowski both contributed as starters last year. Kurt Ainsworth and Eric DuBose were expected to be in last year's rotation, but were both injured by May. John Maine is the pitching prospect closest to the majors, and Rick Bauer can start and relieve, and has been around seemingly forever.
Overall:
The Orioles will live and die by their pitching. If the young guys can step up with their development, Ponson can continue his rebound, and Lopez can pitch like last year this team can be a very good team, and with a little luck (OK, a LOT of luck
) compete for a wild-card spot. The lineup is very good. The bullpen is very good. Hopefully, the team can prove to be very good.