guy44

Team are listed in the order I expect them to finish:
AL WEST
Los Angeles of Anaheim Anaheim of Los Angeles Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim:
Right? Yeah, they’re good and stuff. Similar team to last year, but they’ve upgraded the pitching staff (a Byrd in the hand is worth more than Ortiz and Percival in the pen), shortstop (Cabrera), and the outfield (Finley). Sure, we can quibble over excess contracts (see Colon, Bartolo, Cabrera, Orlando, Erstad, Darin, and Escobar, Kelvim) and first basemen that make great centerfielders, but hell, at the very least they will be as good this year as last. Nothing wrong with that.

Oakland Athletics:
Oakland is good, too, but some combination of Haren, Blanton, and Harden is not up to the task of replacing Mulder and Hudson yet. The offense will be better than last year, with Crosby a year better, and Kendall setting the table, but they won’t exactly score 1,000 runs. The bullpen will be solid, the bench deep, and a core of good young players will keep this team in contention until September. They’ll probably be disappointing, but then again, John Mabry isn’t the best damn softball player in Delaware - yet. Words to live by.

Texas Rangers:
Despite a lovely nucleus of young offensive talent, Texas overreached last year. Funny, their pitching staff was offensive, too. Expect a consolidation year. This is the time to figure out who starts offensively in ’06, whether or not they can find any pitchers at all, and just how much magic they can realistically expect out of Orel Hersheiser. Stop me if you heard this one: if the Rangers can field even the 10th best AL pitching staff in 2006, watch out.

Seattle Mariners:
The rich have a greater chance of getting through the eye of a needle than the Mariners have of experiencing a winning season. And since the Mariners are rich, too, they are doubly damned to h–e–double–hockey–sticks. Beltre and Ichiro will be fun to watch, very valuable players, but about three smidgeons below what they were worth last year. Jeremy Reed and Miguel Olivo will begin their respective 15-year quests to make Kenny Williams look (even) stupid(er). On a sweeter note, I expect Richie Sexson, Chris Snelling, and every Mariners pitcher under the age of 25 to become bestest friends with trainer Rick Griffin. I know it’s silly, but I have this daydream in which the Mariners sign Sexson by playing The Price is Right. “I’ll take Sexson at $50 million, Bob,” says Bavasi. “Oops, looks like you’re over by about $30 million,” replies Barker. “You lose.”

AL CENTRAL
Minnesota Twins:
Oy. Despite trying their damndest, the Twins will most likely win their division by default for the third straight year. Look, the middle infield is still a mess. Shannon Stewart and Jacque Jones will enter their third straight seasons in which neither one should be on this team. The back of the rotation is still an unknown quantity. Does any of this sound familiar? If the Twins did all the right things, LeCroy, Mauer, and Redmond, Bowen, or Miller would split catching duties. Mauer and LeCroy can share DH time. Jones and Stewart will be traded or sat (especially Jones) in order to give more deserving players like Mike Ryan, Lew Ford, Michael Restovich, and Kubel (when he comes back) time to play. The infield would consist of Cuddyer at third, Tiffee at second, Castro (ugh) at short and Morneau at first. But please, this is the Twins; they never know what to do with the wealth of players at their disposal. The difference between watching a smart, talented person ruin their life with drugs and watching the Twins construct their roster is that the former is illegal, and the latter should be.

Cleveland Indians:
The Indians are very, very interesting - but I’m not ready to anoint them AL Central champs quite yet. Their young players are both good and interesting, but let us not confuse them with young Thome’s, Ramirez’, Belle’s, or even Sexson’s quite yet. The difference between forcing the Twins into a stupid deadline trade and merely remaining squarely in the Minnesota rearview mirror is how C.C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee progress. The bullpen will be solidly above average, but because everyone will compare it to its 2004 counterpart, it’ll become Leonardo DiCaprio-sized overrated. Their year is ’06, once all the intriguing young talent has diluted the chances of any one Indian winning 2005 Rookie of the Year.

Chicago White Sox:
It’s like the White Sox have some tragic case of keeping up with the Jones’, where they see that other teams have nice things so they start to acquire name brand objects as some sort of reflex. At retail price. At least some rolls of the dice will pan out (Iguchi, or maybe one of Los Dos Aging Cubanos), but Podsenik really, really won’t. To be fair, I have to give Kenny Boy props for getting A.J. “Peaches” Pierzynsky. I just don’t see how a dramatically overpaid Garcia, Mark “isn’t that Jim Kaat?” Buehrle, and a good bullpen will be enough to overcome the lack of offense. The lineup will consist of four men who I’m fairly confident will do well in Pierzynsky, Thomas, Konerko, and Rowand; four I’m unsure of in Willis, Iguchi, Uribe, and Dye; and I know Borchard, Crede, and Podsednik will fail like an Anna Nicole Smith drug test. (Too obvious?) Four good starting hitters and two good starting pitchers…well, if you think a winning team they make, I’ve got a penis enlarging cream I know you’d just love.

Detroit Tigers:
Detroit is still on its campaign to be the most bizarre team since the ’99 Spiders. On the plus side, they’ve got Dmitri Young, Rondell White, Craig Monroe, Carlos Guillen, Ivan Rodriguez, and Jeremy Bonderman. If you imagine that all teams got to keep six players, and the rest of the league got randomly distributed amongst the franchises, the Tigers would be starting out in a pretty good position. In terms of value, relocated players would theoretically be distributed evenly – like in a bell curve. So you’ve got to figure that, in this scenario, it’s close to statistically impossible for the Tigers to wind up with 19 other players so awful as to be equivalent in value to what the rest of their team really is. An aside: Magglio Ordonez’ contract was so unfathomably oversized that I wondered if somehow the Tigers had lost some bet, double-or-nothing, to Scott Boras. That man needs to become a hostage negotiator, or join the American U.N. delegation, or something.

Kansas City Royals:
The Royals, well, I doubt there’s much I could tell you about the Royals that you didn’t already know. They suck, and have a long way to go; maybe it’s irrational, but I don’t think any team playing in a city that straddles two states has any right to be good. I mean, come on, that’s just stupid. Beloit Snappers: I’m looking at you. Fun activity for Kansas City fans: every time Calvin Pickering homers, look directly at manager Tony Pena and scream, “Ken Harvey would’ve singled that one!” in a disappointed, scolding tone.

AL EAST
Boston Red Sox:
There’s not much to add here that everyone else hasn’t covered to death. The offense is still sick, and the starting staff may take a slight downturn this year while remaining one of the league’s best. The bullpen will be better. The bench is deep and hairy. What’s the over/under for Schilling and Wells giving up a combined 50 walks this season? So why, you ask, do you pick the Sox over the Yanks? Well, I’ll tell you what…

New York Yankees:
…it’s a tough call, but the tie-breaker goes to any team smart enough to not sign Jaret Wright to a multi-year contract. Wells + Clement > Johnson + Wright. Pavano is what makes this really close, but isn’t quite enough to make up for the superior Sox offense. Look, the team is similar to last years and won’t perform too differently than in 2004. Either they or the defending World Champions will win the Wild Card, and the other the division. Similar to the Red Sox, there is very little I can add about the Yankees that others haven’t already discussed, save this: Tanyon Sturtze is really cool and currently my favorite Yankee. In an on-air interview recently, he admitted that – and I’m paraphrasing – “I’m comfortable being a reliever or a starter. I mean, last year I stunk as a reliever, and I stunk as a starter; hopefully I can continue doing whatever kept me pitching.” He may be no Doug Glanville, but he does make fun of how much he sucks, so they aren’t all that different. I’m going to try and begin my analyses of the rest of the AL East with a one-sentence slogan. Let’s begin.

Toronto Blue Jays:
“Free health care for anyone accidentally injured by the impact of one of our young players cratering!” Everything - and by “everything” I mean except for J.P. Ricciardi’s name still being the coolest amongst general managers – went wrong last year. You know how the Patriots went to the Superbowl, then missed one, but picked up right where they left off and reached football’s championship game again two years in a row? For the 2005 Blue Jays, think “Patriots,” but without the whole “championships” thing. Last year will soon be a bad memory as the Jays pick up where they left off in 2003: slowly but surely rebuilding from within and relying on shrewd trades and free agent pickups in the meantime. Expect rebounds from Hinske, Batista, Halladay, and co. The Jays have too many good young players coming over the next few years to remain this bad. However, do not mistake this for a sunny forecast: unless the Jays start making smarter decisions, and accelerate their improvement rate, they will tread water forever.

Baltimore Orioles:
“At Least We’re Interesting!” This ordering of AL East teams may seem familiar to you, or at least it will be once you remember how to engage in the process of elimination. Lots of high-return, high-risk players with name recognition means that this year will be fun to watch if nothing else. And for that, Orioles fans can be grateful. Yeah, they goosed the Cubs out of Sammy, and good for them. But it is their own interest not to give him a contract extension; he costs too much and can’t possibly draw in fans the way he could in Chicago. I mean, I’m from Chicago, and over here he draws fans to the ballpark like he has his own gravitational pull or something. He won’t do that in Baltimore. I don’t think the O’s are going anywhere in particular. But hey, at least they’re interesting.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays:
“Watch Lou Piniella Scream!” I have a prediction (I know, I know, what else have I been doing? Just bear with me). The year is 2008. Aubrey Huff has been gone for two years. Rocco Baldelli and Carl Crawford decide to test the free agent waters. Scott Kazmir is rehabbing his Tommy John-ed arm in AAA Durham. Delmon Young is only two years from arbitration and absolutely raking. Ditto B.J. Upton. Piniella examines his .425 record as a Devil Rays manager, beats a watercooler into its next life, and asks the new clubhouse attendant where his damn latte is. Suddenly, and without warning, he collapses before he makes it halfway to his Pepto-Bismol cabinet. Aneurysm’s a bitch.

NL WEST
Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants:
At Dodgers-Giants games last year, I like to think that Barry Bonds and Adrian Beltre hung out together before the game, stretching, injecting each other with steroids, and wondering if a lineup of just the two of them could beat a lineup cherry-picked from the rest of their teams’ combined rosters. The Dodgers no longer have Beltre, but then again, the Giants do have Omar Vizquel. My best guess is that Barry Bonds and the Seven Dwarves (that should be a name of a band) won’t get the same year out of J.T. Snow and won’t quite be able to catch up with that oh-so mighty Dodgers offense. Realistically, how good can a rotation relying on Schmidt, Reuter, Tomko, and prayer be? Alou’s slow, aging body and noodle arm will really hurt the San Franciscans in right field. The Giants weren’t good enough last year, and I don’t think they have done anything to get better.
The Dodgers lost a great third baseman. They replaced him with Jose Valentin. Uh-huh. I’ve seen him play for years in Chicago, and he’s an underrated shortstop who is wasted defensively at third and can’t hit enough anymore to stay at the hot corner. However, the Dodgers will have a full year of Choi, whom I think will surprise quite a few people. Will Drew stay healthy? Look: it is very close between the Dodgers and the Giants. Neither team did much to help themselves. The tie-breaker, in my opinion, is that we don’t know how many games Bonds will play. If he plays 150 games, he’ll get another chance to play Baysball in October. If he plays 120, he’ll watch a Dodgers team with less combined offensive talent than him alone reach the playoffs.
Question of the year: which will be more fun to watch, a Gagne-Bonds matchup, or Marquis Grissom struggling vainly to cover about three-fourths of the outfield?

San Diego Padres:
I’ll admit that I thought the Padres were going to win the West in 2001. And 2002. And 2003. And 2004. It’s time to give up; they made a valiant effort. Kevin Towers made the right moves – it’s not his fault that Brian Giles aged rapidly, or that Phil Nevin and Ryan Klesko started to become injury-prone. It isn’t his fault that Tagg Bozied, Xavier Nady, Jake Gatreau, Sean Burroughs and company didn’t become the players everyone expected. It isn’t his fault that Dennis Tankersly is uncoachable, or that Peavy got injured. Look, if one of the veteran hitters stayed healthier and two of the young hitters developed, the Padres would at the very least be in the thick of things. Sometimes, the best laid plans simply don’t work out. And I hate to be the one to say it, but the Padres’ window of opportunity has closed. Really, the only things left for Padres fans are their money, beautiful city, and perpetual 70-degree weather. F*ckers.

Colorado Rockies:
Is Dan O’Dowd’s new crazy scheme for the Rockies building a solid core of young hitters and pitchers from within, giving them time to play, and bolstering them with a good bullpen? Sounds crazy, huh? The Rockies won’t be good this year, but gosh darn, they might be headed somewhere. With J.D. Closser at catcher, Garrett Atkins at third, Clint Barmes at shortstop, Matt Holliday, Brad Hawpe in right, and Jeff Francis in the rotation, these new Rockies will be cheap, young, decent-to-good, and will get better each of the next few years. The Rockies will soon have Ian Stewart, super-prospect, at third as well. If O’Dowd is shrewd, he can turn this into an early-‘90s Indians situation: good to great young players signed early to long-term contracts in a town that will come out to a great ballpark to watch a good team, a decent enough rotation, a killer bullpen, and a few good, highly paid players, like Todd Helton, rounding everything out. Things are looking up, Rox fans, and your team could really be quite good in three or four years. Meanwhile, the new Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Edition just came out. I’m sure you can think of something to occupy your time.

NL CENTRAL
St. Louis Cardinals:
The Cardinals will most likely experience the devastating impact of the Plexiglas Principal. They also lost Haren, Calero, and Renteria. They replaced them with an alliteratively ailing ex-A’s ace, prayers, and even worse, David Eckstein. They will be good, but will win far fewer game than before. Nevertheless, their core is solid: Rolen/Edmonds/Pujols can rake even without Renteria. Larry Walker will get injured; the question is, when and for how long? They really look like a team better suited for the long-run than the playoffs. If another team’s starter can shut down those big three hitters, I don’t see the rest of the team being able to put up crooked numbers on the board. Plus, their pitching staff is “Whassup!” old and I’m pretty sure that I saw Dr. Lewis Yocum asking Matt Morris’ wife what health insurance provider they use. The biggest reason I think they’ll make the playoffs, though, is that without Haren or Daric Barton, they have no really good prospects, and Walt Jocketty is smart enough to know that this may be the Cardinals’ last hurrah. He’ll trade for somebody good in July.

Chicago Cubs:
I’m not so bold a Cubs fan as to predict they win the division. The lineup is still middle of the pack, and can only score as many runs as last year if Nomar stays healthy. The bullpen is untested. If I remember correctly, the bench’s 90th percentile PECOTA projection is a .190/.200/.210 line, which would look absolutely wonderful if compared to what I would hit as a major leaguer. However, two things are in the Cubs’ favor: 1) the Cubs underperformed their Pythagorean last year, although though Dusty may be a big part of that, and 2) their starting rotation was unhealthy last year, although Dusty may be a big part of that. Because if that rotation stays healthy, look out. Prior to Zambrano to Wood to Maddux. Yowza. As for the Sosa thing; well, lets just say I heard that when Cam Bonifay learned of the trade, he called up Hendry personally to congratulate him and suggested this great outfielder who played for the Rockies last year. My best guess: wild card.

Houston Astros:
The Astros are primed for collapse, as Joe Sheehan so aptly summarized: Baggs and Biggio are a year older, they lost Beltran and Kent, Clemens at best will be as good as last year, Pettite may be injured, Oswalt’s elbow is questionable, they don’t have any fourth or fifth starters, Lidge may be their only decent reliever, and they haven’t filled any of their holes in the offseason. Plus, Berkman will be out for the first month, the Astros will play mostly terrible defense, and Jason Lane will most likely eat bench until it’s too late. Really, though, I’d like to sum up the biggest problem the Astros have: they are paying Brad Ausmus $3 million to suck harder than Creed. I know this isn’t literally the biggest problem the ‘Stros have, but it is indicative of their inability to reign in foolhardy spending. Look out below! The Astros are going spelunking.

Pittsburgh Pirates:
The best thing that can be said about the Pirates is that a couple years ago, their manager literally stole a base. OK, that’s not fair: I like to watch them in order to catch a glimpse of Craig Wilson’s haircut. (Yes, yes, they actually some decent young players this year like Perez and Bay, but come on – I’m trying to be glib here!) [I wrote this before I discovered that Wilson has tragically cut off the world’s only mullet with blond highlights. Damn!] I actually think the Pirates will surprise people with their offense, as Jason Bay, Craig Wilson, and Matt Lawton make for one hell of a more or less acceptable outfield. Hey, this is the Pirates. Wigginton and Wilson and Sanchez and Hill and Ward and Santiago will all pitch in to produce an astoundingly average infield. That is not an offense to be ashamed of. Oliver Perez, Josh Fogg and Kip Wells will do a good job in the rotation. The rest of the pitching staff, not so much. All of which adds up to the Pirates’ best season in years: 76 to 80 wins. If they reach the high point of that projection, it’ll be the best Bucs season since 1992. In case you were wondering, Barry Bonds has hit 527 homers since then.

Milwaukee Brewers:
Little known fact: did you know that, alongside the brat, the polish, the Italian sausage and the hot dog, there is a fifth runner in the Brewers’ sausage race? You guessed it - the Brewers themselves are racing as well, it’s just that they improve in increments so slowly that any forward movement is invisible to the naked eye. I like Ben Sheets, because besides being an awesome pitcher, he’s a genuinely nice guy. I hope for the other Brewers’ sake that they are nice guys, too, because I imagine most of them will find themselves in a new line of work within a couple of years.

Cincinnati Reds:
Lastly, and oh so certainly least, the Reds made the best signing of the offseason; I personally cannot wait to watch Eric Milton pitch in the Great American Ballpark, can you? Let’s see…that’s about $8.5 million dollars a year, which comes to…um…about $17,000 a homerun. This is an absolutely terrible, uninteresting team in the infield, bullpen, and rotation. At least home viewers get to play Pin The Injury On The Outfielder. I like Kearns, Dunn, Pena, and Jr. for varying reasons, but damn, they have to stay healthy.

NL EAST
Atlanta Braves:
At first I though of the NL East, “do I have to give a prediction?” But then, on the horizon…Wait! What’s that I see? A saving grace? Why so it is: I officially gave up not predicting the Braves to win the NL East last year. Sweet! Yeah, so…Hudson was nice for the Braves. Their outfield will be weak, but Giles will…oh, screw it. I’ll just say it: I have no clue how the Braves will win the East this year. Neither do the Braves. One year, they win because of an amazing starting rotation; the next, because of the bullpen; the next, because of a world beating offense. But something utterly improbable always comes together in time. Just ask Johnny Estrada. Hell, I’ll just put my money on a 25-homer Julio Franco performance. That’s about one for every two years of his career.

New York Mets:
The Mets’ season will depend entirely on Pedro’s right arm. So who knows? If it is healthy, they could be damn decent. My prediction is that Pedro pitches 160 awesome innings. Along with Carlos Beltran, this will give the Mets enough of a boost to leapfrog everyone but the Braves, who will be leading the division for some as-yet undetermined reason. Man, if Pedro and Piazza are healthy, this team could be tough to beat. Then again, Pedro’s never healthy, and Piazza’s knees are Britney Spears marriage vows hollow. This is easily the toughest division to forecast; every team save one has a good shot at October ball.

Florida Marlins:
The Marlins will repeat 2004: they will annoy everyone through September, but ultimately will be eliminated by the Cubs. Er, maybe not the last part. But some team will do it. Carlos Delgado cures what ails ya, but I’m not sure he isn’t going to fall just short of really helping this team reach the playoffs. For example, Luis Castillo is hitting for less average, less power (somehow), and is slowing down. Juan Encarnacion is utterly useless. Alex Gonzalez may no longer be The Lesser, but he’s not greater than much. So much rests on the young pitching; I feel like the Marlins are some sort of cliffhanging 1950s comic book. “Will Beckett survive The Blister?! Can Willis control the temperamental Windup? Is A.J. going to survive…his own arm?! Find out in next season’s thrilling Fighting Fish!”

Philadelphia Phillies:
I refuse to believe in a team who doesn’t have the good sense to show Bull Durham to one of their top young pitching prospects. That’s just asking for trouble. More importantly, though, the Phils have probably missed their window of opportunity. Burrell, Abreu, Thome…I’m not sure this lineup is good enough anymore. A couple years ago, when it was a couple of years younger, perhaps. But a new manager and Jon Lieber just don’t fix the damage wrought by Stormin’ Bowa. Unfortunately, Byrd and Rollins and Bell and Polanco won’t be enough to help this long-suffering franchise succeed in this tough division. Just…when they’re eliminated, try to keep the batteries at home, Phils fans. Don’t say you weren’t warned.

Washington Nationals:
This wandering team, composed of but four good players, will be forever remembered as tragic. This time next year, the official won-loss record for the 2005 Washington Nationals will read: 45-117*. That * will be there because they actually won 72 games; it’s just that every time they wore their white home uniforms the official scorer mistakenly marked them down as the “Los Angeles Anaheim of Angels,” then crossed that out and wrote “Anaheim and Los Angeles Angels,” then crossed that out and wrote “California Angels.”

Yeah, that sounds about right.

__________________
"You have reached Ritual Sacrifice. For goats press one, or say 'goats.'"