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Old 02-24-2005, 06:56 AM   #37 (permalink)
retsuki03
Crazy
 
Location: Austin, TX
Quote:
Originally Posted by C4 Diesel
You're not going to believe anything it concludes because it's a simulation. Well, how else are we going to do climate prediction? Can you propose a method of climate prediction, taking into account all the significant variables, which doesn't involve a computational model?

Well, your "Clutch" article shows just how accurate these computer models can be. The problem is knowing all the significant variables.

From your article:
Quote:
Even the most pessimistic forecasts of global warming may now have to be drastically revised upwards.
So I guess that means even the models that predicted the worst are quite potentially completely wrong. The more modest predictions would, of course, be way fucking off.

This only proves how far we are from knowing the right variables to predict the climate in the future. The local weatherman can often not even tell me if it is going to rain on the weekend. He uses the information he knows, and makes a guess. Just like these computer models do. Sometimes they are right, and sometimes they are wrong. Apparently, up until your ground breaking clutch article- all of them were wrong.

So basically your article is a demonstration of how erroneous information can be used to develop often entirely wrong climate predicting computer models in conjunction with yellow journalism to convince people that there is a cataclysmic change pending in the environment all the while getting people to watch the BBC and arousing a "sceptical response from other scientists."

Damn, you're right. That IS clutch.

The truth be told, I just don't buy it. I have looked on the internet can find could very few articles supporting Stanhill. Neither your article, or the Analysis of your article that I posted before address the prospect of cosmic radiation. However, the article by Dr. Jaworowski I posted before does. I honestly wonder if you even looked at either.

My general view is that the prediction models are inaccurate. Your article makes the case for me.

But maybe your right, and I might be just missing the idea.

Last edited by retsuki03; 02-24-2005 at 06:58 AM..
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