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Assuming for a second that God is external and personifiable (which is kind of a silly supposition, but for the sake of argument), of course God can change his mind. I have a historical argument and a theological argument.
Historically, the Jews were God's chosen people. If you accept that Christianity way God's way of chosing new people, then he changed his mind on the Jews. Then, of course, Christians did what people do with religion: Use it to repress, conquer and generally do things directly contrary to the tenets of that religion. So, when God changed his mind again and started up Islam, he used an assumed name. Now, personally, I am pretty sure that if there ever was a God, he changed his mind again and said to hell with the lot of you and left us with the mess we have at the moment, but there's also the argument that he changed his mind a third time and started the Mormon church, though maybe he was just f*cking with them.
Seriously, though, free will implies that humanity can do the unexpected. That being the case, a merciful god might be inclined to change his mind form time to time, particularly when the unexpected violates his dicta but fits his plan better than the expected actions. That would be the theological argument.
Of course, I know I can change my mind, and so can you, and, since we are all of us God, then that's another argument in favor. (It's flip, it's glib, but it's also pretty close to what I believe.)
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Light a man a fire, and he will be warm while it burns.
Set a man on fire, and he will be warm for the rest of his life.
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