soundmotor

Actually, it is far greater. The Chinese have essentially no satellite intel resources, 1 nuclear missile sub, no way of projecting power outside their own land base (1 short range aircraft carrier), mimimal (if any) cruise missiles, and are surrounded by hostile neighbors, some of which that have nuclear weapons.

The counterpoise on China in their sphere of influence is India, Australia, & Japan and to some degree Russia. Assuming that statecraft & diplomacy failed utterly and that China would want to lose it's largest trading partner in the world, the US, here is how it might shake out:

Russia is essentially neutral unless threatened directly by China. Even though they've opened up greatly to the Chinese in the last 5 years, they still hate each other's guts. If the Chinese were to mix it up with the US, Russia would essentially be happy that 2 of its enemies were beating on each other. There is however no way to tell what they'd do. They might even join on the US side if real ugliness began. China would have to have some portion of its nuclear arsenal held in reserve against a Russian strike.

Australia is a given for the US despite anti-US sentiment amongst a segment of the populace. The Oz PM is Pro-Bush & Pro-US knowing that if the ish hits the fan, it is the US that would be there for them not to mention the special arrangement the US has had with Oz & UK since WWII. China attacks the US & Oz lets loose on a long ago determined, Pro-US action against China. China would have to earmark part of its nuclear arsenal for Australia.

Japan has developed into perhaps our strongest ally in the world. Japan's current constitution is under review and is likely to be changed so that they can re-militarize with offensive rather than purely defensive forces. That is rather a sham really as Japan already has advanced, US supplied, seagoing Aegis missile systems deployed to counter Korea as well as an air force complement more advanced than the Chinese. Should China attack the US, Japan would be on offensive, Pro-US footing overnight. China would have to earmark part of its nuclear arsenal for Japan.

South Korea & North Korea essentially cancel each other out in a Chinese/US conflict.

India however does not. Traditionally an enemy of the Chinese aligning themselves with militarily with Russia & over the last 8 years steadily increasing its Pro-US stance. Further, the Indian war materiel is almost exclusively Russian which as far more advanced than what the Chinese use, essentially Russian copies. The Chinese could not predict what this emerging nuclear power would do either. It would be tough to invade as India has a huge standing military as well. Part if it's nuclear arsenal would have to be earmarked for India.

So assuming that China did launch some portion of their ~250 total nuclear launch devices, of which only a fraction of are capable of reaching the US shores, The US still has nearly 3,000 devices, the majority of which can hit China back. China would have a better outcome by having all its citizens jump off a chair simultaneously than to use its nuclear option. Far more likely is that they invade Taiwan and dare us to do anything about it. It is that kind of scenario that future combat systems are meant to engage.

soundmotor