CSflim

A common tactic among paranormalists is to claim that anamolous data that doesn't fit their theories is actually evidence of 'just how powerful' the effects in question really are.

An example of this is when a television 'psychic' asks his viewers at home to take a watch that has stopped working and to hold it between their hands. He would use his incredible 'psychic energy' to start the watches again.
Sure enough people are soon phoning in about re-started watches. (The effect works because of the heat generated by the person's hands, not because of 'psi energy'). This is to be expected. But even more interesting is when people phone in about things other that watches re-starting (My microwave which has been acting up lately is okay again, and it has a clock in it...so it's kind of a watch). Naturally the tv psychic takes the credit for this, using it as evidence that his powers are so great as to be able to do things even more impressive that re-start watches.


So what has this got to do with the GCP? Well the orignal claim of the GCP was that the emotional state of people all over the world has the ability to alter the outcome of random number generators. This was backed up with information showing correlations to certain notable public events. (Interestingly all false positives are to be duly ignored).

Now in the wake of a number of very major public events (Sept 11 and Asian Tsunami), we have good reason to want to show a further corellation. But it doesn't quite work out. The 'anamolies' don't fit - they simply don't occur at the correct time. But this is seen as a perfect opportunity to show 'just how incredible it is'. This is done by invoking time travel. We are all to gasp in awe, as the effect is even more amazing than we at first thought - not only can the psychic restart wrist watches, he can influence much larger things, microwaves and the like!

It is important to realise that statistic anamolies occuring at some unspeicified time before a significant global event is significantly less impressive, not more impressive, than ones which occur in synchrony with them.


Another thing which I would like to point out, something which is categorically ignored by the author of the quoted article is the existence of false positives. Statistical anamolies which simply do not correspond to any global event. Declining to mention these, while technically not outright lying, is extremely dishonest in my opinion.


I want to make it quite clear that these researchers aren't looking at their graphs and then being suddenly taken aback by a massive deviation from what is to be expected! (and low and behold - look at the date!) - they are actively searching for data to correspond to these events!

"I had the most remarkable experience this evening. While coming in here, I saw licence plate ANZ 912. Calculate for me, please, the odds that of all the licence plates in the state of Washington I should happen to see ANZ 912."
- Richard Feynman

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