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Convection has nothing to do with it. Convection is a means of heat transfer. Pressure and temperature dictate the volume of a gas. Gasses disperse in order to equilize pressure and temperature gradients.
The top of the pond freezes because that is the area exposed to the cold temperature. The heat is going from the pond to the air. The ground that surrounds the pond insulates the bottom of the pond.
Don't put ID into this.
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