Tilted Forum Project Discussion Community - View Single Post - Bush's plan to forfeit your SS account profits

smooth · 02-05-2005, 10:18 AM

according to the article, you need to achieve a rate of return over 3% above inflation to break even. You don't just get to look at whether one obtains a 10% return, but that return minus the average rate of inflation from 1925 to 2004 (measured by the CPI), which has been 3.1%. So that places your real rate of return closer to 6-7%.

a) are you going to get to invest in the S&P 500? so I guess I'm just wondering what relevance it is to post the rate of return for the S&P 500 if you don't get to invest in it.

b) hopefully you don't turn 70 on any of those down decades, or your retirement will be sitting on the floor and you'll be waiting for 15 years for it the market to regain traction

c) I am more interested in the median rate return, which is resistant to outliers. Both the mean and the median are "averages," so which one is being used here? I suspect the mean is since that portrays the average in a better light than the other two measurements: the median and the mode (which one might also be interested in knowing, since that gives the most often occurence).

All this ignores my larger concern regarding the one point in time someone decides to run off with your money or any large dip in the market. it only takes once and you are screwed if it happens at the wrong time (e.g., right when you retire)

02-05-2005, 10:18 AM	#61 (permalink)
smooth Junkie Location: Right here	according to the article, you need to achieve a rate of return over 3% above inflation to break even. You don't just get to look at whether one obtains a 10% return, but that return minus the average rate of inflation from 1925 to 2004 (measured by the CPI), which has been 3.1%. So that places your real rate of return closer to 6-7%. a) are you going to get to invest in the S&P 500? so I guess I'm just wondering what relevance it is to post the rate of return for the S&P 500 if you don't get to invest in it. b) hopefully you don't turn 70 on any of those down decades, or your retirement will be sitting on the floor and you'll be waiting for 15 years for it the market to regain traction c) I am more interested in the median rate return, which is resistant to outliers. Both the mean and the median are "averages," so which one is being used here? I suspect the mean is since that portrays the average in a better light than the other two measurements: the median and the mode (which one might also be interested in knowing, since that gives the most often occurence). All this ignores my larger concern regarding the one point in time someone decides to run off with your money or any large dip in the market. it only takes once and you are screwed if it happens at the wrong time (e.g., right when you retire) __________________ "The theory of a free press is that truth will emerge from free discussion, not that it will be presented perfectly and instantly in any one account." -- Walter Lippmann "You measure democracy by the freedom it gives its dissidents, not the freedom it gives its assimilated conformists." -- Abbie Hoffman Last edited by smooth; 02-05-2005 at 10:39 AM..