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I think its too early in the scale of human time to decide which is less likely or more likely to happen - i mean sure, most democracies have had few civil wars, but there is no doubt many countries have had major ones - i suppose the difference is, most learn from them, and make sure to take charge to prevent future ones, which could be filed under checks and balances.
Democracy, like all other governments, however, come down to human nature - even a well built democratic nation can be bent under the will of the masses no matter the size as long as its the majority. A government ruled by one man can rise and fall as his emotions go. Checks and balances of course are there to limit the possibility of such things happening but ultimately in the end its how the people think and act.
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