There's not going to be a civil war. The insurgency is united against the U.S. occupation. Christian Parenti has been to Iraq 3 times and recently downplayed the prospect of a civil war. There is not that much division between the groups right now as they all see themselves victims of an unwanted foreign occupation. Most Iraqis are just really sad and depressed about all the killing around them and would rather the U.S. leave.
Parenti gave a good overview of the whole situation on Flashpoints this past Monday. The U.S. has already lost the war. The insurgency is stronger than it's ever been and the election will change nothing. The names on the ballot haven't even been announced yet for "security" reasons. The election is total shame. There is no reconstruction going on because there is no security. Journalists are too afraid to even leave their hotels. It's hopeless. The question is: how many more must die before Bush finally figures it out?
http://www.flashpoints.net/index.html#2005-01-17
http://www.pbs.org/frontlineworld/st...401/index.html