According to both JKR and her publisher it's shorter than Order of the Phoenix by a long shot. JKR said on her website:
Quote:
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As a spokesperson for Bloomsbury, my UK publisher, has already said, HBP is shorter than Order of the Phoenix, and I can tell you now that it has fewer than 38 chapters.
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I'm sure speculation and rumor will be rife in the months to come, thus I urge everyone to check MuggleNet, the Leaky Cauldron or JKR's own site before posting something they've heard.