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Look at Curt Schilling and Bartolo Colon. Both have had weight issues but Curt and to a lesser extent, Colon, have not been affected by their weight. I do see the similarity between the career paths of Ponson and Pavano. Pavano would be a fine #3 starter but a team would be insane to rely on him to be their ace. I'd also be cautious of having him be my second best pitcher. Don't forget that he pitched in a pretty good pitchers park also.
He also isn't the workhorse people make him out to be. He's only hit 200 inning twice last year. And really, 200 innings isn't that great. All it means is that you didn't get hurt and were effective enought to go at least 6 innings with the occasional 7, 8 or complete game. I compare him to Miguel Batista last season. He's had his ups and downs over the years but in his contract year he put up career numbers. The only real difference is 4 years (which can be a big deal depending on your view of aging). Batista got a 3yr/13M deal. It really shows the difference between this years market adn last years market. Everybody is overpaying for sightly above average talent this year.
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