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JosephSelf · 11-03-2004, 08:20 AM

A stream of consciousness (or what resembles consciousness on 3 hours sleep) set of random observations, part 1 (because I'm sure I'll have more later):

1. Bob Shrum--0 for life in presidental campaigns

2. I don't want to hear any pundit citing the popular vote win as significant this time unless they held the same opinion last time. Kerry didn't run to win the popular vote, or else he would have had organizations in the South, trying to lose 52-48 rather than 58-42.

3. I heard handwringing on one of the big 4 networks last night (CNN, FOX, NBC/MSNBC and ABC--CBS marginalized itself out of any crediability) about how it was a mistake for the Dems to run a northeast liberal in a national election. That may be so, but let's not forget that Kerry didn't get blown out the way Dukakis and Mondale (ok, he's northern, not northeastern) did. The Dems are going to have to look at three things: 1. Is it the message 2. Is it the messenger 3. Is it the way we try to sell the message and the messenger. Actually, it's a combo of all, but I'll let them try to figure it out.

4. Speaking of the coverage, I was impressed that all networks that mattered didn't move in lockstep in calling states. However, ABC and CNN's reluctance to call Ohio moved from the cautious to the ridiculous. Provisional ballots are cast because the person wasn't on the rolls to vote. 100% of them aren't going to be counted (I heard that it ranges from 7% to 20%), and even if they were, not all are going to go to Kerry. I know it makes no difference legally if the media outlets call it right, but were the situation reversed, I think it's safe to say that CNN would have called it for Kerry hours ago.

5. Tying to that, I didn't fault Kerry for waiting before conceeding, but it's getting time to get out of the fantasy land of thinking Ohio is still in play. Again, conceeding or claiming (as Martinez did in Florida's senate race) doesn't change the count, but it's good to put the matter to bed, especially after the 2000 race. After tying this and a few more, I heard Kerry will concede at noon central, and I hope he's as gracious as Gore was in 2000--Gore gave the best speech of his life that night.

6. Back to the message/messenger/delivery issue, Kerry focused too much on "I'm not the other guy" and didn't give voters concrete reasons to vote for him. "I have a plan" isn't a plan in and of itself, it's the beginning of a sentence that gives more information.

7. Biggest blunder in the campaign: Using the phrase "global test". The obvious would be "I voted for the 87 billion before I voted against it", but it was this slip of the tongue (I HOPE it wasn't calculated on the part of his campaign) that kept ringing in the ears of many.

8. Which is more likely in 2008: Republicans crack into the Gore/Kerry states and win some or Democrats pry away some of the Bush states? A couple of small states, maybe three, switched around this time, but by and large, the states stayed put. Something's got to give, I'd think.

9. Best observation by a pundit: Willie Brown on MSNBC said the ease of the Florida win would be attributed to Bush doing well among the Jewish voters. I hadn't thought of it, but it made perfect sense to me. Second best: Susan Estrich telling Brit Hume early in the evening that if the panel wanted, they could continue to ignore the exit polls, but if those polls were right, Kerry was going to win.

10. The race for 2008 starts today.

11-03-2004, 08:20 AM	#1 (permalink)
JosephSelf Banned	Post your random thoughts about the election here A stream of consciousness (or what resembles consciousness on 3 hours sleep) set of random observations, part 1 (because I'm sure I'll have more later): 1. Bob Shrum--0 for life in presidental campaigns 2. I don't want to hear any pundit citing the popular vote win as significant this time unless they held the same opinion last time. Kerry didn't run to win the popular vote, or else he would have had organizations in the South, trying to lose 52-48 rather than 58-42. 3. I heard handwringing on one of the big 4 networks last night (CNN, FOX, NBC/MSNBC and ABC--CBS marginalized itself out of any crediability) about how it was a mistake for the Dems to run a northeast liberal in a national election. That may be so, but let's not forget that Kerry didn't get blown out the way Dukakis and Mondale (ok, he's northern, not northeastern) did. The Dems are going to have to look at three things: 1. Is it the message 2. Is it the messenger 3. Is it the way we try to sell the message and the messenger. Actually, it's a combo of all, but I'll let them try to figure it out. 4. Speaking of the coverage, I was impressed that all networks that mattered didn't move in lockstep in calling states. However, ABC and CNN's reluctance to call Ohio moved from the cautious to the ridiculous. Provisional ballots are cast because the person wasn't on the rolls to vote. 100% of them aren't going to be counted (I heard that it ranges from 7% to 20%), and even if they were, not all are going to go to Kerry. I know it makes no difference legally if the media outlets call it right, but were the situation reversed, I think it's safe to say that CNN would have called it for Kerry hours ago. 5. Tying to that, I didn't fault Kerry for waiting before conceeding, but it's getting time to get out of the fantasy land of thinking Ohio is still in play. Again, conceeding or claiming (as Martinez did in Florida's senate race) doesn't change the count, but it's good to put the matter to bed, especially after the 2000 race. After tying this and a few more, I heard Kerry will concede at noon central, and I hope he's as gracious as Gore was in 2000--Gore gave the best speech of his life that night. 6. Back to the message/messenger/delivery issue, Kerry focused too much on "I'm not the other guy" and didn't give voters concrete reasons to vote for him. "I have a plan" isn't a plan in and of itself, it's the beginning of a sentence that gives more information. 7. Biggest blunder in the campaign: Using the phrase "global test". The obvious would be "I voted for the 87 billion before I voted against it", but it was this slip of the tongue (I HOPE it wasn't calculated on the part of his campaign) that kept ringing in the ears of many. 8. Which is more likely in 2008: Republicans crack into the Gore/Kerry states and win some or Democrats pry away some of the Bush states? A couple of small states, maybe three, switched around this time, but by and large, the states stayed put. Something's got to give, I'd think. 9. Best observation by a pundit: Willie Brown on MSNBC said the ease of the Florida win would be attributed to Bush doing well among the Jewish voters. I hadn't thought of it, but it made perfect sense to me. Second best: Susan Estrich telling Brit Hume early in the evening that if the panel wanted, they could continue to ignore the exit polls, but if those polls were right, Kerry was going to win. 10. The race for 2008 starts today.