archer2371

I'm gonna take you guys through each battleground state that has not been called, source being the Fox News statistics, I'm not using their spin, because there is a spin for the Republicans, that's why I watch it. However, I'm using the raw numbers here.

Wisconsin:
99% Precincts Reporting
Senator John F. Kerry-1,480,256 (50%)
President George W. Bush-1,466, 963 (49%)

I give this one to the Senator, that's a 14,000 vote lead, while possible, it is not probable that the President can make that up, my electoral count now stands at 269-252.

Iowa:
100% Precincts Reporting
President George W. Bush-741,325 (50%)
Senator John F. Kerry-725,700 (49%)

No bones about this one, this one goes to the President, no precincts out there left for the Senator to grab. My electoral count now stands at 276-252.

New Mexico:
99% Precincts Reporting
President George W. Bush-325,311 (50%)
Senator John F. Kerry-323,691 (49%)

Same situation, but flipped, as in Wisconsin, possible, but not probable that the Senator can make up that difference, especially in a small state such as New Mexico where even a 3,000 vote margin is substansial. My count now stands at 281-252.

Nevada:
100% Precincts Reporting
President George W. Bush-388,953 (51%)
Senator John F. Kerry-368,458 (48%)

Same as New Mexico, but with a larger margin of victory for the President, small state, 20,000 vote margin of victory, almost a landslide in contemporary standards. My electoral count stands at 286-252.

Okay, now we're going to look at the statistics in Ohio and we'll review the scenarios.

Ohio:
100% Precincts Reporting
President George W. Bush-2,794,346 (51%)
Senator John F. Kerry-2,658,125 (49%)

That's a difference of 136,221 votes there. Let's for a moment assume that there are 250,000 provisional votes out there that need to be counted. I've been hashing out the numbers here for a few minutes and the magic number for the Senator is going to be 194,000-196,000 provisional votes that would give him the win, that's if there is 250K provisionals out there. This situation, while possible, is not very probable. If someone wants to figure out that exact number the Senator needs to win, go ahead, I'm running on not much sleep so even the rounded numbers was a bit of a stretch for my brain. The official count of provisional votes currently with 78 of 88 counties reporting is 135,000 votes, then you have to consider that some of those are not going to be legitimate, it happens, not because of some vast right wing conspiracy that is trying to suppress the vote, but because not many people are informed of how to register to vote or how to figure out whether they're eligible or not. This is why I am comfortable in declaring the President the winner of Ohio.

The Dreaded Popular Vote, From CNN:
President George W. Bush-58,283,800 (51%)
Senator John F. Kerry-54,758,357 (48%)

Keep in mind, even the vaunted President Bill Clinton didn't get a majority of the American people's votes, he received a plurality, but not the majority. This is the first President since his dad to get the majority of the votes, and the President's number of votes is greater than even Ronald Reagan's greatest number of votes. To me, this throws out all of the theories that previously worked, most notably "120 Million voters means a decisive Democrat victory." Come to find out this ain't true, just goes to show you that nothing that has happened in the past guarantees a future outcome.

__________________
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