http://www.tradesports.com/ has had an open market for betting on the election for several months. The system is more like a stock market than traditional betting.
Bush has always been ahead, but Kerry has started moving up over the past half hour and is now the favored candidate. Someone knows something. The question is whether or not they're right.
I'd put Bush at 48 and Kerry at 52 (percentage chance of winning) if I had to bet right now.
Where would you place the line?