My research into the final polls in the swing states, with a bias towards
Zogby's polling numbers because of his accuracy in predicting Bush - Gore
results in the 2000 race, and John Zogby's prediction of a Kerry win in his
guest appearance on the Daily show on Oct. 28 influences me to conclude that
Kerry will be declared the winner by the majority of major news services,
sometime between 10:00 pm and midnight EST today, Nov. 2.
I predict that Kerry will be recognized by these news services to have 290 or
more electoral votes. I predict that Kerry will win a 5 million popular vote
plurality. I predict that Bush will concede the election to Kerry no sooner than
Dec. 12, 2004, after exhausting every option of legal argument, remedy, <br>or relief that he and his advisors can think to bring before the courts. I don't rule out
the declaration of a national emergency or a color red terror alert in an effort
to delay a peaceful transition from the Bush to a new Kerry administration,
if my predicted election results stand.
Supporting links: <a href="http://216.239.41.104/search?q=cache:4kLigRUOZWEJ:www.ncpp.org/1936-2000.htm+zogby+accurate+2000&hl=en">
National Council on Public Polls - Error Measure</a>
<center><center><img src="http://me.to/svr005.gif" width=735 height=1050>
<a href="http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=923">http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=923</a>
Quote:
<a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/10/31/politics/main652497.shtml">http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/10/31/politics/main652497.shtml</a>
Newport said historically the challenger gets more of the undecideds but he had no estimate of how they will split this year.
Most recent polls count likely voters, not registered ones. Given the surge in registration, determining who is likely to vote can be tricky. Mellman dubs likely voter models "questionable at best."
If more new voters come out than the pollsters project, that could aid Kerry. The Fox poll gives Kerry a 47-45 percent lead among registered voters. Reuters/Zogby estimates Kerry has a 51-41 percent edge among newly registered voters.
"We have looked at it different ways and we may even present an alternative model that discounts voting history," Newport said in an interview Sunday as his organization wrapped up its final poll of the 2004 race. If there is evidence of a surge of support for Kerry, he said, "It will be picked up."
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Quote:
Early voting to speed results <a href="http://www.heraldtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20041101/NEWS/411010324/1006/SPORTS">http://www.heraldtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20041101/NEWS/411010324/1006/SPORTS</a>
Early voting and absantee ballots could give an earlier, bigger picture of the election.
By VICTOR HULL
victor.hull@heraldtribune.com
Soon after the polls close Tuesday, Florida and the rest of the nation could get a snapshot of the race between President Bush and Sen. John Kerry here based on the unprecedented number of people voting early.
Local elections supervisors on Friday began processing -- but not counting -- the absentee ballots that have been flooding in over the past week or so, storing data in the optical scanning machines that record the votes. After the polls close Tuesday, they will run the programs that tabulate the votes.
In addition, in counties that have electronic touchscreen balloting, including Charlotte and Sarasota, supervisors can begin counting the votes recorded on those systems during the early voting that has taken place over the past two weeks.
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