Along with my prediction I also predict a shake up at Gallup for their pathetic polling methodology. Beyond simply oversampling Republicans (even though historically there are unqeustionably more Democrat voters), their Likely Voter definition is incredibly flawed:
Quote:
One might say that minority or young voters vote less consistently than affluent whites. But Ruy shows pretty clearly that Gallup's numbers presume rates of participation that defy history and common sense.
For instance, minority representation among voters in 1996 was 17% and in 2000 it was 19.4%. Yet Gallup says it'll be 14.5% this year. That's hard to figure since, as Ruy notes, minorities are growing as a percentage of the population.
With blacks, it was 10.1% in 1996 and 9.7% in 2000. But Gallup says that it'll fall this year to 7.5%.
On young voters (18-29 year olds), it's a similar story. Young voters made up 17% of the electorate in 1996 and 2000. This year, says Gallup, they'll account for only 11%.
(Josh Marshall summary of: http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorit...ves/000808.php )
|