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cthulu23 · 10-20-2004, 07:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bud4

Polls obviously vary for many reasons, including when they were taken. The latest CNN/Gallup Poll, as of 10-18: "President Bush has moved back ahead of Sen. John Kerry in the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll. Among likely voters, Bush is ahead of Kerry by a 52% to 44% margin, exactly the same as in the last Gallup Poll conducted before the presidential debates began in late September. Among registered voters, Bush has a 49% to 46% margin over Kerry." Looks like some of you Kerry buffs might be a little out of date... or maybe out of touch?

Gallup has been oversampling Republicans which explains why their numbers are so out of whack with other polls.

Edit:

From http://www.theleftcoaster.com/archives/003054.html:

Quote:

Because according to Gallup’s poll this week, they expect the electorate to be 85% white, 41% conservative while only 19% liberal, and a third to make over $75,000 per year.

Well, of course an electorate of that composition would vote for Bush by 8% over Kerry. But is that the electorate we’ll see this year? And does Gallup really believe that only 15% of those who go to the polls this year will be nonwhites, or are they privy to some inside information from the GOP about minority voter suppression that the rest of us don’t have?

Gallup has been very forthcoming in responding to my requests for information, and they obviously stand behind their methodology and assumptions. But take a look at the demographic breakdown of this week's sample, and ask yourself how likely is this to replicate itself on Election Day, given the increases in registration this year?

Total Weighted Sample: 557 Likely Voters
(2000 exit poll actual results in parentheses)

By Political Ideology:
Conservative: 41% (29%)
Moderate: 41% (50%)
Liberal: 18% (20%)

Party ID:
GOP: 39% (35%)
Dem: 35% (39%)
Ind: 25% (27%)

Income:
Over $75,000: 32% (28%)
$50-75,000: 16% (25%)
$30-50,000: 26% (24%)
$20-30,000: 11%
Under $20K: 9%

And if this wasn’t bad enough,

Race:
White: 85% (81%)
NonWhite: 15% (19%)
Black: (a subset of NonWhite) 8% (10%)

I think those numbers speak for themselves. Gallup is using a sample that assumes 1) depressed minority participation this year from 2000, 2) assumes a drastically higher participation of conservatives as compared to 2000, and 3) predicts that Bush would win by 8% with that electorate. It should also be noted that Gallup's LV sample contains only 11% in the 18-29 year old age grouping, compared to 17% in the 2000 exit polls. Recent polls show that Kerry/Edwards is doing well with younger voters.