Quote:
Originally Posted by Stompy
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
...although I'm sure someone will say that it's biased because it may/may not be in their candidate's favor
Either way, they take the average of various polls done in the country to figure it out. Pretty neat stuff.
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Actually this is not what they do. The guy says plainly a.) he's a Kerry supporter, and b.) he takes the most recent, shortest poll in a state, not an average of polls. I agree that it's a cool site, but when you see one poll from 2 days ago that has Kerry ahead in Fla., and there are 2 polls out yesterday that show Bush with the edge, and he posts Kerry on top in Fla., I kind of question his system.
For a poll-averaging site, visit
www.realclearpolitics.com. These guys are implicitly Republican, just by reading their commentary and the news articles they post links for. But by looking at both sites, you get a clear view of what's going on poll-wise.
My prediction: something will happen to Kerry that will look bad, just like Bush looked bad with the DUI scandal in 2000, and that will push Bush ahead by 3-4 points in the popular vote, and somewhere around 300-310 in the electoral college. Nader will get 1% of the vote, and he won't matter this year.