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no super scientific evidence here, but the super charged political environment of this election has already upped registration numbers to record levels. almost every poll taken (even in swing states) takes into account "likely voters" and uses them for their numbers. the problem with that is the recordbreaking registration is happening among minorities, low-income households, and young people, and those people, because they JUST registered, aren't likely to be counted as a "likely voter." as it falls, the majority of these people are probably going to be kerry supporters - the minorities, poor, and young people are really kerry's base, at least in the context of this election.
43 million people watched the debates. considering the impact the debates had on bush's lead, i think this number is pretty significant. 15 million some voters have registered this year with, again, strong representation from the aforementioned groups. even if the representation was only 60% of that 15 million, i think it's enough to push kerry over the top, at least of the popular vote.
my 2 cents...
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