There's this poll and that poll out and some people say Bush is extending his lead while others say Kerry has it locked up.
kerry winning
bush winning
It would be highly ironic if Bush were to win the national vote and lose the electoral vote. Most incumbents either win big or lose by a little. The redskins game against the packers will determine whether the incumbant wins, just as it has for so many years, etc... These and other silly readings of tea leaves have been tossed around by commentators, and they amuse me.
There are serious commentators that have made some convincing arguments on why both candidates will likey win. I've heard many, if not most of them, because I suppose I'm a political junkie.
Now I'm curious. What do you think will happen? Not what you want to happen, but a prediction, and a reason you think that will happen, if there is one.
Come on, go on the record, where there will be a time stamp next to your post that can be quoted elsewhere to show how right or wrong you were/are.
Also a caveat. Let's please try not to use this to your chosen candidate's advantage. There are allegations by both sides that the parties have told their faithful to vote online and try to spin the debate performances and campaigns to give their candidate a better chance. Maybe the thought is that American citizens are such sheep that they'll follow alng on the winning bandwagon. I don't buy it, but that possibility is why I'm not going to put a poll up. Let everyone know what you honestly think is going to happen.
I'll go first. I think Bush will win.
Here's why:
A. Nader
B. polls show Colorado won't split the electoral college
C. Say what you want about Rove, but he's a scientific numbers nerd first and had Bush campaigning in Minnesota and other blue states while Kerry was in Florida. Doesn't make sense, right? I wouldn't want to bet against him, and I bet he knows more about the numbers than I, or anyone on Kerry's staff.
Carville and Stephanopolous revolutionized politics with their quick response tactics in Clinton's first campaign. They invented the "war room" type of campaigning designed to take advantage of the quick media news cycle. Rove was revolutionairy in figuring out and using computers to forecast votes and the tactics to get the most votes. Bush didn't win the popular vote in 2000, but he wasn't shooting for it, either. Rove figured out a strategy and it worked, but just barely. In Texas, no one thought Bush had a chance against popular Ann Richards, but Rove's computer numbers in Austin told him that it was a very real possibility, and it worked very well. Bush is not campaigning like someone who is trying hard to drum up the base, and that leads me to believe that his campaign thinks it will win, and he is trying to make sure that he wins by a little more this time.
That's what I think will happen, and I'm making this prediction about a week and a half before the election. Feel free to point this out, and how stupid I was on November 3rd if I'm wrong.
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