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Bush is gonna win. The national polls just don't matter. If you look at the Electoral map Bush is clearly ahead.
Even if Kerry did win I expect the status quo in any event. Mess continues in Iraq. More confilict in places like Iran and Syria. North Korea becomes more and more threatening. Pakistan is threatend by islamic radicals. China takes tougher stance towards Taiwan and U.S. Economy continues a slow steady course with some bumps in the road such as high oil prices and slow job growth.
Worst case: Israeal bombs Iran. PAkistan has radical coup prompting U.S. bombing of Pakistani nuclear capability. Sub-continent erupts. U.S. joins Israel fight in Iran and Syria. U.S. moves towards all out war economy and draft. North Korea bombs Japan and S. Korea. China bombs Taiwan and threatens U.S. WWIII.
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