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Originally Posted by Dragonlich
jb2000, your reasoning sounds realistic, but you fail to take into account the factor Time. It takes years to design, build and test long-range missiles. Therefore, these missiles were planned years ago, before Bush got into power, and before this whole "axis of evil" thing. And, I might add, before the US had shown it was willing to go back on it's word (whatever that may mean to you).
I suspect Iran wants nukes and ICBMs to put pressure on Israel, and to try and make sure Israel doesn't use *it's* nukes in a future conflict. It is my firm believe that Iran wants to attack Israel at a future date, and these missiles will come in handy. If they ever get a missile capable of reaching the US, they'll probably use that to persuade them to stay out of the conflict.
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To say that attempts by Iran, NK, etc to develop nuclear weapons merely because of the Bush Doctrine would of course be very silly. That was not at all my intention. Nations seek nukes for a variety of reasons. Regardless, the Bush Doctrine has had a negative effect on non-proliferation efforts. Actually, I should say that it is more han the Bush Doctrine, but the entire Bush strategy of opposing diplomatic efforts to limit nuclear weapons (NTB, ABM, etc.) while simultaneously giving nations increased reason to develop these weapons.
Indeed, when it comes to Iran, you are very correct to cite Israel as a driving factor in nuclear development. You are also very correct that missiles are long-term development items, just like the nuclear warheads htey may one day carry. They aren't knee-jerk reactions to current events.
However, I contend that we still need to counter these developments, and just because non-proliferation, just like proliferation, is not an over-night activity, we should not abandon it.
Iran won't have a missile to attack US soil with anytime in the foreseeable future, barring some bizarre developments. They do however, have the capacity to sstrike the US, both by attacking our assets and our allies. We will wax them in a military conflict, but will we be willing to withstand neclear attacks on our forces and our allies to do so? If not, then they have an effective deterrant without being able to strike US soil.
Regardless, at this point, what is the most effective path towards non-proliferation when dealing with powers such as Iran?