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Fact is, it's hard as hell to put a probability when there are so many people out there who struggle to have children for months or years... while some have multiple kids in a row without even trying.
The probability also depends on a LOT more things than YOU, bud. You gave us a lot of information about you, but she's the key. Every woman is different, especially in the way they accept or reject sperm... I could get into the science but you can find it in a ton of places if you really care to look.
The point is, if she doesn't get pregnant, consider yourself fortunate or anointed or blessed, and GET BIRTH CONTROL. If she's not pregnant, you got lucky this time in more ways than one - don't take the risk again.
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"The power of accurate observation is frequently called cynicism by those who don't have it." - George Bernard Shaw
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