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This is completely unsubstantiated in nature - but one of the inherent weaknesses of many polls is a new aspect of society: the number of people who do not have land-line telephones. Not all polls are telephone based, but many are. There are somewhere around 170 million cellphones in use in the country. Assuredly, the large majority of them are business related, but there is and has been a growing number of people who only have a cellphone. And this segment of the country is typically young, which is also typically more apt to vote liberal. If even half a percent of the 170 million cellphones are people who are never sampled in these polls, that's 850,000 people - most of whom would probably vote Kerry.
But assuredly, it's all a guessing game until Nov. 2nd. I think a real concern is the high degree of probability that some of the individual State vote counts will be strongly contested. I do not expect either side to acquiesce as quietly as Gore did in 2000.
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