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I think that Kerry needs to destroy Bush in the debates to have a chance. And I don't think he has that ability. Bush will be ready to go, and isn't a slouch when it comes to debates from all accounts.
If that doesn't happen, then some sort of major defeat in Iraq on the order of being pushed out of Baghdad and other places by militants. Basically, a disaster for our military.
Finally, some internal scandal, such as discovering he really didn't serve in the ANG, or knew 9-11 was coming, something like that would be needed.
Outside of those, I can't see Kerry coming back like he needs to in order to win.
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"Final thought: I just rented Michael Moore's Bowling for Columbine. Frankly, it was the worst sports movie I've ever seen."
--Peter Schmuck, The (Baltimore) Sun
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