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Scipio · 09-20-2004, 05:25 PM

I think you guys are doing two things. One, you're forgetting how quickly things are going to happen in the final weeks of the race, and two, the question wasn't "can he win?" it was "what does he need to do in order to win?"

Sure, some polls have Kerry down 14 points. They're called "outliers." There are other polls that have Bush up by only 3-4 points (Zogby, Investors Daily/CSM, Pew, Harris). There have been questions about Gallup's methodology, which seems to greatly overstate possible Republican voter turnout. So, perhaps the polls are more of a wash, though they do show a trend.

So, Bush has some momentum, and the polls are moving his way. The same thing happened to Kerry two weeks ago. Like I said: we've got quite a ways to go yet, and things are going to happen fast.

For those reasons, I don't think Bush is home free just yet. Iraq is looking worse and worse by the day (and anyone who denies it needs a reality check). When Robert Novak speculates that Bush plans a unilateral withdrawl after the election, you know things are pretty grim.

So that brings us back to Kerry. On the premise that he can still win (which is quite plausible, no matter how easy it is to imagine a Bush landslide at this point in time), what mix of rhetoric, strategy, and tactics will give a victory in November?

09-20-2004, 05:25 PM	#8 (permalink)
Scipio Mencken Location: College	I think you guys are doing two things. One, you're forgetting how quickly things are going to happen in the final weeks of the race, and two, the question wasn't "can he win?" it was "what does he need to do in order to win?" Sure, some polls have Kerry down 14 points. They're called "outliers." There are other polls that have Bush up by only 3-4 points (Zogby, Investors Daily/CSM, Pew, Harris). There have been questions about Gallup's methodology, which seems to greatly overstate possible Republican voter turnout. So, perhaps the polls are more of a wash, though they do show a trend. So, Bush has some momentum, and the polls are moving his way. The same thing happened to Kerry two weeks ago. Like I said: we've got quite a ways to go yet, and things are going to happen fast. For those reasons, I don't think Bush is home free just yet. Iraq is looking worse and worse by the day (and anyone who denies it needs a reality check). When Robert Novak speculates that Bush plans a unilateral withdrawl after the election, you know things are pretty grim. So that brings us back to Kerry. On the premise that he can still win (which is quite plausible, no matter how easy it is to imagine a Bush landslide at this point in time), what mix of rhetoric, strategy, and tactics will give a victory in November? __________________ "Erections lasting more than 4 hours, though rare, require immediate medical attention."