Quote:
Bush clear leader in poll
By Susan Page, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON — President Bush has surged to a 13-point lead over Sen. John Kerry among likely voters, a new Gallup Poll shows. The 55%-42% match-up is the first statistically significant edge either candidate has held this year.
Among registered voters, Bush is ahead 52%-44%.
The boost Bush received from the Republican convention has increased rather than dissipated, reshaping a race that for months has been nearly tied. Kerry is facing warnings from Democrats that his campaign is seriously off-track.
With 46 days until the election, analysts say the proposed presidential debates offer Kerry his best chance to change the race.
"It doesn't look like the new consultants and strategies of attacks are the right ones" for Kerry, says Matthew Dowd, chief strategist for the Bush campaign. Kerry in recent weeks added veterans of the Clinton White House to his team and began criticizing Bush more sharply on Iraq and other issues.
Dowd says Kerry at this point would "have to defy history" to defeat a sitting president.
"We have seen some bouncing around in the numbers," says Mike McCurry, a top Kerry adviser, "but it is our sense that the race is moving back to a much closer race."
A Pew Research Center poll released Thursday shows a tighter contest. The survey, taken Saturday through Tuesday, gives Bush a statistically insignificant lead of 47%-46% among likely voters.
The Gallup Poll was taken Monday through Wednesday.
Presidential candidates have won after trailing by similar margins. One was George W. Bush himself. In 2000, he was behind Al Gore by 10 points among registered voters in early October and then prevailed in the Electoral College, though he lost the popular vote.
In 1980, Ronald Reagan was down 8 points in the Gallup Poll in late October but won in a landslide after doing well in the only debate held with President Carter.
"Sen. Kerry is like Seabiscuit: He runs better from behind," says Donna Brazile, who was Gore's campaign manager. But she acknowledges that "backbenchers" in the Democratic Party "have begun pushing the panic button."
|
When Kerry got the nomination I thought it would come down to the debates. Apparently I was correct. It doesn't take a giant leap to think this about a nation considered 40-40 politically (with 20% wishy-washy). As the nation learns about John Kerry, they don't like him, that’s pretty obvious. A lot of people don't like Bush, but there is nothing 'likeable' about Kerry. This idea has already been discussed on these boards. Still there are the debates. The debates are why Bush won in 2000. Gore the experienced politician and debater vs. the Bumbling Cowboy. Instead Bush held his composure while Gore looked petulant. Gore also managed to get caught in a couple of lies, and suddenly this Cowboy didn't look so bad after all. I always hear people always say the debates don't matter, and really if you follow these matters, they don't. I know enough about Bush to know what he is going to say about any 'normal' question. I know enough about Kerry to know I have no idea what he is going to say, but I'll know he said the opposite at some other time. I know I am voting for Bush unless something totally unexpected happens. Likewise anyone who has followed Kerry all this time and still wants to vote for him will do so almost regardless of the debates.
The debates themselves is more a test of who looks better and who did their homework. Trick questions are easy when you prepare for them. Now maybe someone will be able to pull off another 'name all the leaders' question that made Bush look bad in 2000. That same question was given to the seven or nine or however many democrats in the primaries at a debate, none took the questioner up on the offer, but these debates are more controlled by the candidates then a lone reporter in a room with a canidate he doesn't support.
Now my predictions are as follows.
Kerry, who has been moving left this week claiming blacks are being systematically repressed by republicans, and suddenly he even revived gun control, will be firmly center. He will try to convince Americans they don't have to pay the new taxes, only the 'rich'. He will suggest nothing radical in Iraq, but just that things are horrible and that he can somehow make it work better. He will NOT bring up Vietnam. I would not be surprised if he tries Reagan's immortal debate line with Carter. He will offer no solutions, because doing so will piss off at least part of his base. Mind you I could be wrong, but these are the things I would do if I were Kerry and things I think would work. If the polls are even worse for him he may go for a long shot and fall on his face.
Bush will be Bush. He will be asked about the lack of WMD's. He will semi-blow that off but will talk about the dormant but not disbanded programs and the very long range missiles Hussein was trying to build and let people make the link from there. He will have a list of 'good' static’s from Iraq he will mention and he will mention that no one said the war on terror will be easy. If questioned on the economy he will have the current figures which are pretty good, he will bring up the start date of the recession as well.
There is more they will both talk about, health care (I can almost hear them both, Kerry will mention the uninsured, Bush will mention the lawsuits and his plan for clinics in poorly served areas), North Korea (they will say the same thing), Iran (they will say the same thing, though Bush will not rule out any military force, Kerry won't bring it up unless asked directly where he will say he couldn’t rule it out but it would be a last resort and we wouldn’t do it alone).
Things neither will want to talk about.
Immigration - Can't piss off the Hispanic vote.
Abortion - Lose lose for both of them.
Ok its late and I'm getting to tired to continue. I'm curious as to what others think will be outcomes, questions, and answers to the debate questions.