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Old 09-14-2004, 07:30 AM   #54 (permalink)
roachboy
 
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Location: essex ma
who judges whether the kerry people get "traction" or not exactly?
seriously..what evidence would you look to for this?

my sense is that there is far more opposition to bush than you imagine, and that it is of a nature that would not necessarily be reflected in more recent polling, because it is firm, while the polling and the press that relays/interprets this (problematic) data both have an interest in maintaining the horserace impression.
how do you know that the polls of late have not focussed on previously defined swing areas, for example, in order to generate the impression of interest in the elections, and interest in the press insofar as it attempts to mediate elections?
polls almost never appear with any methods or raw data, so they could be of anything....

what i am unsure about is how wide the gap is that seperates what i take to be urban populations in the main and those who live in the suburbs--which is a significant political divide--if i was in the burbs, i do not know how i would derive a sense of what was going on around me politically. where i live--and in the cities i have been in over the past months, it is more obvious if you just walk around, talk to folk. there is a total disconnect between what folk talk about in threads like this and what i see going on around me.

this question, btw moves away from the question of the image created around/for bush as televised Leader and whether you impute "charisma" to it to that of the basis for judgement regarding what is going on.....
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