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I too think Bush will win. Not so much because of his charisma since the only time he demonstrates it is when he's speaking from the heart (and he doesn't do that often enough) about something he really believes in.
The reason I feel he will win? Kerry's campaign is not getting traction on any real issues. Their biggest focus it seems is Vietnam. Defending Kerry's Vietnam service, attacking the Swift Boat Vets, and trying to link Bush to them while also calling into question Bush's service (yet again). If they don't get some serious traction behind one or two big issues in the next couple of weeks they're sunk.
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Strive to be more curious than ignorant.
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