i do not think bush will win.
i think there is an profound rejection of his administration and its policies abroad in the land.
i do not think he has much of anything in the way of charisma--he is a chauncey gardner, an empty signifier who has a tightly run campaign centered on building an image that actitvates fear in order to place cowboy george in the middle of it. the campaign is not selling charisma--it is selling the idea that chaos lurks and cowboy george is already in place and that change in and of itself will unleash chaos. if there was any assumption of charisma on the part of the bushcampaign, the strategy would be different. maybe the campaign itself would be less foul even. it is the foulness itself that is the best index i can think that works against the premise of the thread.
the campaign strategy may well turn out to be riskier than it is now understood.
obviously, it is structured to make the bushimage impervious to information--i do not think it will work---for example there is this today:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/guantanamo...303105,00.html