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One poll does not a concensus make.
Most national polls are neck and neck. I am sure Bush got a boost from the convention, but like all of bush's ups, it will be followed by a steep decline.
Get about 10 to 15 major national polls and find the average point distribution in that.
It is very interesting to view presidential approval ratings over his term. Starts off very low, HUGE spike for 9/11 then a gradual drop off. Iraq war again boosts him, but not so much. Drop off gets a bit steeper after that. Capture of Saddam, another small boost. Dropoff is almost immediate. This will be his 4th little spike and I think it will be razor thin.
Also remember the Democratic Primary. Kerry appeared dead in the water. Dean had more than a 20 point lead and then almost immediately everything turned around and Kerry just took off running with everything.
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