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1 1/2 days? doubt it... maybe an hour to 4 hours with cable.
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I think your forgetting about the other 10,000ish amount of people that have the cards. And for the fact that it took me a full 24 hours to download the works off of steam (barely breaks 1.7gb), that's where I based my assumption. Yes, steam does have some good hosts... but they randomly pick them for you. Some may have 20~50kb/s, some may have 100+.
Let's not forget about the day steam came out officially. It took most people 3~4 days to get cs 1.6, and the content servers went down like flies. Obviously they learned what went wrong there, and may/may not have fixed it.
EDIT*
(10,000 people having the cards is just my estimate. After saying it, it sounds a bit high... but I'll stick with it.)