Quote:
Originally posted by Stompy
That doesn't make any sense because you're saying you have a 50% chance of flipping heads 5 times in a row, and that's not true.
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No, what he's saying is that the fifth flip, regardless of the four flips before it, has a 50% chance of flipping heads. Don't you see that saying, "It went three reds in a row, so there's only a 6.25% chance of it being red again," is the same things as saying, "It went red, then black, then black, so there's only a 6.25% chance of it being red."
Black, Black, Black, Black, Red; and Black, Black, Black, Black, Black, are equally likely. As is Black, Red, Red, Black, Red (in that order).
If you're still convinced that your betting system will work over the long term, take on the "Wizard of Odds Challenge." It's here: http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/scam.html. He will put up $20K against your $2K that your system will lose over the long term (1 billion bets).