That's why there's 3 iterations of it. You don't just toss all your $$ down on red if there are 4 blacks. Of course the odds of getting 4 in a row is 6.25%. That's when you START it.
Since you start at 4, you're betting that it won't be 5 in a row (3%). If you happen to lose, you're then betting against it being 6 in a row (1.5%), and then finally if all else fails, the breaking even point which is 7 in a row (.7% failure). Meaning... if it happens to land on the SAME color 6 times in a row, you have a 99.3% chance that the next spin will be red.
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Originally posted by CoachAlan
And whatever the first three colors in the order are, the likelihood of the fourth number being black or red is still 50%.
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Of course, since red/black are the only possible results that may come up. No one is refuting this. Keep in mind we aren't counting the 0 and 00 results that may come up. You're talking about the likelihood of the next spin, I'm talking about the odds (statistically) of it being 5, 6, or 7 in a row.
The likelihood that it's black or red is obvious, it can only BE red or black, but calculating future results if you have past results in front of your face is most certainly based on
past results. We're not talking about the likelihood of the outcome, we're talking about the odds of getting x in a row.
You're right though, if Casinos knew it helped you, they wouldn't do it... however, aside from pretending that 0 and 00 won't come up, I can't find a flaw in my plan.
Take an adjusted deck of cards, remove a few so that it matches the roulette wheel's total black/red slots, put 2 jokers in (let them be 0 and 00), and to humor me, just try it for about an hour. Flip a card and bet yourself if it'll be red/black. Re-shuffle the deck to keep it even. Flip another card.