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CoachAlan · 07-28-2004, 04:06 AM

Mind you I live in Las Vegas, and am very familiar with what goes on inside casinos...

On most new roulette tables, there is a board that tells you the last 14 or 20 numbers that came up. Stompy, if your system worked, this board would be a great boon to the roulette player. If it really aided the player to know what numbers have come up previously, the casinos would not spend the extra money to install those boards on new tables to let you know about it.

The fact is, those boards PREY on players like you: those who are unaware of the law of independent trials. Your example of the increasing unlikelihood of hitting the same color is flawed. Let me demonstrate the correct formulation for a four-roll series (not accounting for zeroes) :

Color Permutation..........Chance of hitting
R,R,R,R....................................6.25%
R,R,R,B....................................6.25%
R,R,B,B....................................6.25%
R,B,B,B....................................6.25%
B,B,B,B....................................6.25%
B,B,B,R....................................6.25%
B,B,R,R....................................6.25%
B,R,R,R....................................6.25%
B,R,B,R....................................6.25%
R,B,R,B....................................6.25%
R,B,B,R....................................6.25%
B,R,R,B....................................6.25%
R,R,B,R....................................6.25%
B,B,R,B....................................6.25%
B,R,B,B....................................6.25%
R,B,R,R....................................6.25%

Total possible permutations = 16
Total combined likelihood = 100%

You see, it's easy to say that the likelihood of rolling four blacks in a row is only 6.25%. What people fail to realize is that the odds of rolling red, then black, then black, then red, is also 6.25%.

And whatever the first three colors in the order are, the likelihood of the fourth number being black or red is still 50%.

07-28-2004, 04:06 AM	#22 (permalink)
CoachAlan Psycho Location: Las Vegas	Mind you I live in Las Vegas, and am very familiar with what goes on inside casinos... On most new roulette tables, there is a board that tells you the last 14 or 20 numbers that came up. Stompy, if your system worked, this board would be a great boon to the roulette player. If it really aided the player to know what numbers have come up previously, the casinos would not spend the extra money to install those boards on new tables to let you know about it. The fact is, those boards PREY on players like you: those who are unaware of the law of independent trials. Your example of the increasing unlikelihood of hitting the same color is flawed. Let me demonstrate the correct formulation for a four-roll series (not accounting for zeroes) : Color Permutation..........Chance of hitting R,R,R,R....................................6.25% R,R,R,B....................................6.25% R,R,B,B....................................6.25% R,B,B,B....................................6.25% B,B,B,B....................................6.25% B,B,B,R....................................6.25% B,B,R,R....................................6.25% B,R,R,R....................................6.25% B,R,B,R....................................6.25% R,B,R,B....................................6.25% R,B,B,R....................................6.25% B,R,R,B....................................6.25% R,R,B,R....................................6.25% B,B,R,B....................................6.25% B,R,B,B....................................6.25% R,B,R,R....................................6.25% Total possible permutations = 16 Total combined likelihood = 100% You see, it's easy to say that the likelihood of rolling four blacks in a row is only 6.25%. What people fail to realize is that the odds of rolling red, then black, then black, then red, is also 6.25%. And whatever the first three colors in the order are, the likelihood of the fourth number being black or red is still 50%. __________________ "If I cannot smoke cigars in heaven, I shall not go!" - Mark Twain Last edited by CoachAlan; 07-28-2004 at 04:10 AM..