Quote:
Originally posted by BigGov
It's not a safe bet, it's still a 50% chance. Previous tendencies have absolutely zero affect on what will happen next. It doesn't matter what happens before, or after, each spin is 100% *independent* of the next. If you walk into a casino any roulette table you go to will give you the exact same odds of winning even if one has had 100 reds in a row and another has had 100 blacks in a row.
Yes, it is very unlikely to hit 14 blacks in a row, meanwhile, on that 15th spin, there is still a 50% chance that the spin will be black. You're trying to find tendencies in a completely random game.
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If that was the case, you'd have the same chance (in this case, you say 50/50) of getting 10 blacks in a row as you do getting any arbitrary combination, such as 6 blacks and 4 red.
As mirevolver said, each individual spin of the roulette wheel (not counting 0/00) yields a 50/50 chance of getting red or black since those are the only two results that can come out of it.
If you were to actually take a coin right now and flip it 5 times, you have a 3% chance of getting all heads/tails. The 50/50 only comes into play when you say "ok, what are the chances of me getting heads vs. tails". That's 50/50. When you take a look at the bigger picture and take into account past results, you getting consecutive results is no longer 50/50.
The exact equation to figure out the statistics of the result is, for lack of a better explanation, the amount of results the object can yield times the number of "turns" you want to calculate. For example, a dice has 6 sides. The chances of you rolling two consecutive numbers (six then six, or one then one) is 1/36, or 2.7%.
The same applies to roulette. I'm tellin ya, it works! Of course, it isn't 100% fool proof, but if you follow what I explained above, the odds are in YOUR favor of winning. It's rare that you'll lose that $30, but it can happen. Chances are, you'll either break even, or better yet, always have a $5 win.
When I first started my method, I won $10, then happened upon a scenario where I lost $30. I got all that back and then some within 45 minutes. The thing is.. you gotta watch the tables and it is pretty monotonous process.
Find a cheap copy of Hoyle Casino games, or better yet, find an online roulette wheel and try it out. You'll see what I mean.
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Check out this site for a better explanation:
http://www.blarg.net/~math/probability2.html