Quote:
Originally posted by Stompy
Unless I have my math wrong, the odds (probability) that you can flip a coin and have it land heads 10 times in a row is 1/1024. Not very probable. If someone flipped a coin 9 times and got heads each time, you could safely bet (with 1/1024 odds) that the next flip will be tails.
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It's not a safe bet, it's still a 50% chance. Previous tendencies have absolutely zero affect on what will happen next. It doesn't matter what happens before, or after, each spin is 100% *independent* of the next. If you walk into a casino any roulette table you go to will give you the exact same odds of winning even if one has had 100 reds in a row and another has had 100 blacks in a row.
Yes, it is very unlikely to hit 14 blacks in a row, meanwhile, on that 15th spin, there is still a 50% chance that the spin will be black. You're trying to find tendencies in a completely random game.
As for odds being utterly insane, I've been dealt bullets in back-to-back hands in hold 'em, *THOSE* odds are insane. Anything is possible.
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One day an Englishman, a Scotsman, and an Irishman walked into a pub together. They each bought a pint of Guinness. Just as they were about to enjoy their creamy beverage, three flies landed in each of their pints. The Englishman pushed his beer away in disgust. The Scotsman fished the fly out of his beer and continued drinking it, as if nothing had happened. The Irishman, too, picked the fly out of his drink but then held it out over the beer and yelled "SPIT IT OUT, SPIT IT OUT, YOU BASTARD!"
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