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Originally posted by Journeyman
jb: What are the chances of using NMD as a new diplomatic tool of negotion, such as offering an agreement to sell China/Russia blueprints for the NMD system in exchange that they restrain from upgrading their nuclear capabilities?
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It certainly is worthy of consideration, although it would have to be seen how far this could practically go.
We did outreach to Russia about a joint NMD system (they in fact pioneered the concept in the 1960s). However, a number of problems occured. One, Russia is hard-pressed enough to afford her own hardware, much less pay Western price-tags for cutting-edge equipment. Second, I don't think Russia ever trusted us to fully share the system, but instead let them in on a watered-down version of the system. Naturally, there was resistance to paying huge sums for a shield provided by the one biggest threat out there.
I think China would have even greater reservations, even if their ability to pay may be better. To get them to trust that we were sharing equal technology, and that we weren't just giving them a system that was good enough against Indian or Russian missiles but that we knew how to penetrate, would be a tough task. As far as I know, no such feelers have been put out to China, who probably most of any nation in the world feels affronted by NMD.
The US technological edge gives us the ability to cut through most advanced air defenses like butter. I think that China and Russia would not feel much more secure in an NMD system. The only true security they had was that their ownership of nukes, no matter how few or old they were, assured their place at the world table. NMD threatens that security. Even putting them 'under the umbrella' doesn't change that dynamic.