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Bush isn't going to drop Cheney any time soon. McCain wouldn't even think about taking the spot, and as others have mentioned, Powell's presentation to the UN has killed his credibility, so Bush doesn't have a really good choice other than Rice, who may or may not bring votes in for him.
With that being said, McCain/Powell is a ticket I would vote for, and that would probably be able to take the election with at least a 2:1 margin.
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