Quote:
Originally posted by brianna
when you roll a die for each roll you have a 1 in 6 (~17%) chance of rolling any certain number (in this example a 1) this chance does not compound, each roll is independent. it may *Seem* like you're more likely to roll a 1 if you haven't rolled one the last 5 times but statistically you are ALWAYS going to roll a 1 17% of the time. birth control works in the same way, the number of time you have sex has no baring on the likelihood of pregnancy. you're not using up your freebie and you're no more likely to get pregnant on time 1007 than on time 4 (unless of course you somehow screw up the birth control on time 1007, then all bets are off.).
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That is true. However, the chances of rolling a 1 in 6 rolls are higher than rolling a 1 in 1 roll. Therefore the chance of getting pregnant after having sex 200 times is higher than the chance of getting pregnant of having pregnant after 1 time.
You are confusing the likelihood of rolling 1 on a specific roll with rolling a 1 on any roll out of the 6.