Italy CAN still advance but the following needs to happen:
1. A win over Bulgaria, a draw won't do as it would put Italy on 3 points, while Denmark and Sweden are current on 4.
2. There must be a clear winner in the Sweden/Denmark fixture, which would leave the loser on 4 points and the victor on 7. Once beating Bulgaria Italy would have 5 points and will finish second in their group with the victor of Denmark/Sweden finishing first... OR... If there is a draw in Sweden/Denmark they will each have 5 points, (as will Italy by beating Bulgaria) then we go to tiebreakers. First tiebreaker is matches against each other, since Italy managed draws against both Sweden and Denmark, we move onto tiebreaker two which is goal difference (goals for minus goals against). Sweden has a goal difference of 5, Denmark of 2 and Italy of 0. Italy has to beat Bulgaria by at least two clear goals which would give Italy a goal difference of 2, but in the event of a 0-0 Swden/Denmark draw it would lead Denmark because it would have scored more goals at Euro 2004 (3 vs Denmark's 2). However if its a scoring draw, Italy would need to beat Bulgaria by 3 clear goals.
So basically... Italy moves on IF it beats Bulgaria AND there is a winner at Sweden/Denmark.
If there is a draw at Sweden/Denmark Italy moves on IF it beats Bulgaria by 2-3 goals depending on whether it's a goaless or scoring draw in the Sweden/Denmark fixture.
Hope that makes sense
