As you say:
Quote:
As Falluja, Baquba and Tikrit, Saddam’s home town, calmed down, opponents of liberation found a fresh tune: this time it was a song about a national anti-American insurrection led by Moqtada al-Sadr, the maverick mullah.
But that did not, nor is it likely to, happen. Anyone with any knowledge of the Shi’ite community in Iraq would know that al-Sadr has almost no popular support.
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But somehow, that just didn't sound right. I knew I had heard something about this a few weeks back:
http://www.tallahassee.com/mld/democ...on/8623441.htm
Quote:
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According to Dulame, director of the independent Iraq Center for Research and Strategic Studies, prisoner abuse and other coalition missteps now are fueling a dangerous blend of Islamism and tribalism. For example, while American officials insist that only fringe elements support the radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, a majority of Iraqis crossed ethnic and sectarian lines to name him the second most-respected man in Iraq, according to the coalition-funded poll.
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So which way is it? Did the world-wide journalistic community get together and decide to play the war and occupation as a failure, and forget to send us an invitation? I somehow doubt that. The media might be focusing on the bad news, but at least they aren't peddling White House spin.
It's rather odd to say that al-Sadr had no popular support when his men were being slaughtered wholesale by the Americans. They stood up and fought fair and square, but they were soundly beated on a daily basis. I doubt that al-Sadr ever commanded more than 1000 gunmen, and yet they held on for weeks, even as their efforts were clearly futile. They were brave but foolish. Now, they seem to have wised up, and realized that a military uprising is futile while American forces are in the country. They were beaten not by lack of popular support, or by the power of our ideas, but by our bullets and resolve.
I'd like to take up a second and last point.
Quote:
Can Iraq become a democracy? “There is no need to ask the question,” says Hoshyar Zebari, who has retained his post as foreign minister. “Iraq today has no choice but to become a democracy. Our people know that without democracy there will be no Iraq.”
He is right. Even if a fresh despot fancied turning Iraq back into a dictatorship it would prove a nigh impossible task. The edifice of despotism built over almost half a century has been reduced to debris. Saddam is in prison, awaiting trial for crimes against humanity.
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History is filled with examples of free and prosperous societies being overthrown by despots, demagogues, and other unsavory characters. For that matter,
Iraq's history is a good example. Iraq was a prosperous and forward thinking Middle Eastern state when Saddam seized power. It's rather naive to pretend that it can't happen again.
Realistically, what will happen when we withdraw? Isn't it plausible that a Shiite uprising, lead by a Sadr-like character could succeed? Surely it would have popular support from Shiites who don't want to share governance with the Sunni and Kurdish minorities. What if we aren't there to stop it? This isn't negative thinking; it's realitic thinking. We can't afford to pretend that because we're America and because we support freedom we're immune to failure.