The_Dunedan

Ok. Whenever I ( or anyone else ) posits that the reason for the 2nd Amendment and bearing arms is so that an oppressed population might overthrow their masters, I ( and others ) always hear the following:
"You'd never win! They've got machineguns and tanks and helicopters and lots of soldiers!"

This seems true, on it's face. However, I did some research and number-crunching which changes the picture quite a bit.



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Numbers

Combatants: There are about 80,000,000 gunowners in the US. Let's assume a general gun-grab, "turn 'em all in" scenario. Now, let's assume that 90% of gunowners obey. This leaves 8,000,000 people in posession of weapons. Let's further assume that 10% of these remaining chose to resist with force. This leaves us with 800,000 Resistors.
There are about 1.5 Million people serving in the active Armed Forces. Let's assume that only 25% of these ( this number from a DoD study in 1998 ) are willing to fire on American citizens. This takes 75% ( roughly 1.12 Million ) effectively out of the fight, leaving us with 380,000 Military to oppose the Resistors.

So, the Resistors now outnumber the Opressors by more than 2-1.

Arms: There are about 270,000,000 guns in this country. Again, let's assume that only 1% of these remain in circulation after the 'gun grab.' That's 2.7 million firearms in the hands of the Resistors; roughly three weapons for each fighter. To put things in raw terms, this means a rifle, pistol, and shotgun for each Resistor, or any mixture thereof.

So, we now have 800,000 Resistors with 2.7 Million weapons facing 380,000 ( give or take ) Opressors, most of whom will be armed only with a single rifle ( in the Infantry aspect ). Not sounding too bad for the Good Guys so far. This is not taken into account the numbers of fighters and weapons which could be gained from the 75% of the Services which won't shoot Americans.

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Technology and Capability.

Tech: Our Opressor is armed with various high-tech weapons systems. Tanks, APCs, helicopters, IR, and so forth.

Tanks: If an infantryman has the sand to get close enough, tanks are very easy to immobilize or destroy. Simple Thermite will do the job, in the right spot. Also, the control to activate the Halon fire-extinguisher system on the M1A2 is on the outside. Push the button and watch the fun. There are also holes in either side of the Turret, for when the tank has to be disassembled for maintainance. Fire a burst or two into the crew compartment through the holes, and watch the fun. When "buttoned up," ( hatches closed ) tank crewmen rely on small periscopes to see what they're doing. Tankers generally 'button up' whenever they come under fire, naturally. Shoot up the periscope lenses ( an easy target for a reasonably skilled rifleman with a scoped weapon ) and they either can't see, or have to replace the 'scope. They carry spares, but only a few. Man who can't see can't fight. Tanks are also notoriously unreliable, noisy, gas-guzzling money pits. The M1A2 requires 1.45hrs of maintainance for every 1hr spent in motion.

APCs: These are tougher, but the same rule applies. Burn em, blind 'em, run 'em into obstacles. If, on TV, tanks and APC's look like they're driving around blind, it's because they usually are. APCs are more dangerous because they carry infantrymen in a rear compartment, but the same strategy generally applies. APCs are also very vulnerable to Improvised Explosive Devices, because their thin aluminum armor actually amplifies the effect of an explosion on the outside of the vehicle.

Helicopters: Once again, a terrifying idea, but easy to take down if you can stand your ground and STAY STILL. The Afghans showed us how, fighting the Soviets. Pilots look for motion when trying to detect people under cover. So, stay still and don't panic or move quickly. From here, it's a simple matter of distracting, injuring, or annoying the flight crew long enough to cause the 'copter to crash. One helicopter that I know of, in Vietnam, went down because the pilot got his left pinky finger shot off. Helicopters have to be under total control, every second, or they crash like a rock; they're -that- unstable. A deer hunter with a 30-30 could do this; the Afghans did it with 125-year-old Martini rifles.

IR/Sattilites, etc etc: Boo-freakin-hoo. They found us. Now they can A; fire a $30M cruise missle at ten guys in the woods, B: Drop a $2M JDAM on ten guys in the woods, or C: Send some poor Infantry schmucks out to kill ten guys in the woods. Which brings us tooo.....

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Capability.

I, and twenty other people I can think of offhand, can all hit a man-sized target at 500 meters, shooting over open sights. I, and all those other people, can expect to make headshots at ranges of up to 300 yards, or 500 yards if we're using a scope. I also know a half-dozen people or so who could hit a man-size target at 1 MILE using a good scoped bolt-action rifle. And these are just the people I know personally. Think back to that 800,000 figure from before. I GAURANTEE you that of those 800,000 radicals, over half are equally capable or better. Most are using .30-calibre weapons, which can instantly incapacitate out to about 800 Meters/yards.
On the other hand, the entire Military ( except Marines ) qualify at 300 yards. A little over 25% have to try again. Now, bear in mind, this is with a round ( 5.56mm NATO ) which at anything past 250-300 Yards is the equivalent of getting hit with a .22LR. Might be fatal if it got you through the eye or temple. Otherwise, you might eventually die ( in a few days/hours ) but for right now, you're mostly just pissed off. So, a substandard shooter with a substandard cartridge. Doesn't look too good for the Bad Guys.

So, we've got 350,000 guys who can't hit a 20x40 target at 300, shooting an anemic round, facing 800,000 guys who can hit a 20x40 at 600, firing a round with 3x+ the killing power. Looks pretty good for the Good Guys.

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Endgame.

Which brings us down to this.
The Oppressor would, most likely, have to bring in Foreign help, to plug up the manpower holes if nothing else. Now, all of a sudden, there are Chinese/German/French/take your pick UN troops marching down Main St, USA. That 800,000-man army just got a LOT bigger. Americans will take almost anything from other Americans, but let some blue-helmet march down their street, and they'll get MAD. Now, say, there's 2,000,000 Resistors facing 1,500,000 Opressors, who are now made up mostly of poorly-trained Conscripts who hate the food, don't speak the language, are poorly supplied ( because they all carry different weapons, ammunition, and equipment, making logistics a nightmare ) who can't shoot., and who's technology is obsolete. Still looking pretty good for the Good Guys.

Here's the bottom line, folks. The Good Guys win. On numbers, they win. On ability, they win. On time, they win. The only questions now are:
1: When do they win, and
2:How quickly do they win?

I don't know. I'm not a soothsayer. But we still win.

For further reading and sources, see;
"Boston's Gun Bible" by Boston T. Party, available from Javalin Press